National universal cooling real estate industry has bid farewell to the golden age

China Coatings Network
: 2014 real estate development enterprises' annual report data is not ideal. According to Wind data: a total of 75 listed housing enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen released the 2014 annual report, the average debt ratio of 74.05 percent, short-term borrowing increased by 29.33 percent year-on-year, which means that housing enterprises debt service pressure increased significantly, the capital chain is tight.
experienced a national general cooling in 2014, the real estate development industry is depressed. The National Bureau of Statistics has a core indicator that reflects the funding surface of housing enterprises: real estate development enterprises in place of funds. The target fell 0.1 per cent year-on-year in 2014, compared with more than 10 per cent over the past decade, and 5.7 per cent in 2008, even in a depressed housing market.
More noteworthy is that in the second half of 2011 the national market began to divide, first-tier cities and some second-tier cities trended stronger, 2012-2013 showed a recovery and recovery, while some second-tier cities and most third- and fourth-tier cities weakened, there was no market boom in 2013. In line with this, the developer's operating situation tends to differentiate, large housing enterprises are stronger than small and medium-sized housing enterprises, state-owned enterprises are stronger than private enterprises, layout in the first and second line of housing enterprises are stronger than third- and fourth-tier housing enterprises. At present, a small number of housing enterprises operating conditions are still stable, but most housing enterprises have been in the hot water.
another set of data can support the differentiation of housing enterprises. Wind statistics: As of December 18, 2014, there were 245 mergers and acquisitions in the real estate industry, with a total value of 121 billion yuan, up 80% YoY. Many housing enterprises really can not live on, can only sell children sell women sell them. If the Green City equity dispute, Jia Zhaoye encountered the "black swan" and sold, but also only a small case of large housing enterprises, then thousands of housing enterprises quietly retreated, and even to the boss ran for the end, more can explain China's real estate development industry is experiencing strong earthquakes and uphealy changes.
China's real estate industry has actually bid farewell to the golden age, the industry profit margins continue to decline, making money more and more difficult. However, the real estate development industry is characterized by a long production cycle, the inertia of progress is large. The industry has changed, with icebergs ahead, but it will take longer for developers to turn heads. As a result, some ships have been sunk by icebergs, many boats are taking the road and fleeing, only a few large ships (especially state-owned enterprises) are not afraid of icebergs, no major obstacles. Development industry and development enterprises, facing a lot of confusion, the road of transformation is doomed to hardship.
years, China's real estate development industry can be called a giant competition, a group of fierce fighting, some developers even just for the sales amount can be ranked in the top few and rush to seize land, big expansion. For example, in setting sales targets for 2014, many housing companies played a "big leap forward", resulting in increased sales and a decline in sales profits. Nowhere to go has become the first bottleneck in the development of real estate developers.
2010 purchase limit loan price limit and other policies to pressure a second-tier cities, large and medium-sized developers to enter the third- and fourth-tier cities. But after a large number of housing supply, but found that the demand of third- and fourth-tier cities can not keep up, housing prices do not move, making money is very hard. So in 2013 they went back to the first and a few second-tier cities, but these cities have less land supply, land grabs, high land prices, even in 2014, when the property market cooled, high-priced land is still countless. So a new problem came: the price of flour was too high for bread to make money. In the first half of 2013-2014, many high-priced plots in first-tier cities have proved difficult to make money. Take the scenery when you take the land, worry when you sell your house.
In addition, the strong regulation of the housing market has led many developers to increase the scale of commercial property development, while many local officials in the performance concept driven by the planning of a lot of commercial property, so in the last two years many cities, especially second-tier cities commercial property oversupply, sales and investment difficulties. Once the bubble in the commercial market bursts, the negative impact is much greater than in the housing market.
of the important connotations of the new normal of China's economy is to change from extensive development to intensive development and achieve quality growth. The real estate industry is no exception.
(Deputy Dean, Shanghai Yili Real Estate Research Institute)