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In March, natural rubber continued to fluctuate and the amplitude increased
.
In terms of macro, affected by the geopolitical factors of Russia and Ukraine, international crude oil continued to soar and fell sharply recently, and oil prices in the domestic INE market fell
sharply on Friday.
SC crude oil main contract plunged 7.
96%, closing at 683.
0 yuan / barrel, Wednesday, Thursday international oil prices fell for two consecutive trading days, driving the internal downside, rubber this week was greatly pulled up by market speculation, the second half of the week turned around and continued to decline
.
In terms of supply, the global supply is at the lowest point of the year, the weather conditions in China's production areas are better, and it is expected that the Yunnan production areas will start cutting soon; In terms of demand, due to the epidemic and the shortage of automotive chips, the automotive industry continues to be sluggish, the downstream demand of tire companies is insufficient and cost pressure is increasing, the enthusiasm of factory production is insufficient, and the demand for natural rubber is worse
than in previous years.
In terms of data, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate in the week of March 3 was 57.
48% (+4.
7%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 60.
39% (+5.
1%)
.
In terms of inventory, the import volume of domestic ports fell last week, and the accumulation of inventory slowed down, but due to the relatively weak downstream demand and slow inventory outbound, spot inventory continued to increase overall; Domestic production areas are about to be cut, and the subsequent inventory pressure is increasing at an accelerated
rate.
Future market forecast: macro, under the influence of the Fed's interest rate hike and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international crude oil continues to rise and expectations continue
.
Affected by the international situation and crude oil trends, the market's speculation on natural rubber has a greater impact on its market fluctuations, and in fact, from the industrial point of view, the lowest annual supply is current, the automotive industry is sluggish, downstream demand is weak, tire companies operating rate recovery rate is relatively slow, and domestic spot continues to accumulate, market upward momentum is continuously suppressed
.
On the other hand, the cost pressure of synthetic rubber has risen, and the cost of alternative rubber has risen, and the market situation of natural rubber may be affected by this to a certain extent
.
