Nature: Top 10 drug sales forecast in 2020

The wind under the forest The author combs the content of the article "top product forecasts for 2020" published by Nature Reviews Drug Discovery for reference Table 1 Top 10 drugs Humira ® (adamumumab) won the third place in the list of drug sales Anti TNF monoclonal antibody Humira ® has become the most successful drug in the industry, with the title of "drug king", and the sales volume is predicted to reach a new high in 2020 This advantage is largely due not only to its efficacy in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other immune diseases, but also to abbvie's efforts to defend the product's patent, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of its sales This means that although five biological analogues of Humira ® have been approved by the US FDA, they have not yet been activated In the United States, its biological analogues are expected to be sold in 2023, although the star status of Humira ® is gradually weakening Different from the booming foreign market, the performance of TNF - α inhibitors led by adamumumab is unsatisfactory in the domestic market The leading leader, Sansheng Guojian, accounts for half of the total TNF - α inhibitors The sales volume is 1 billion yuan, and adamumumab only contributes 200 million yuan, which is not consistent with the Title of the global drug king It is expected that in the next five years, a variety of anti-tumor drugs will grow strongly By 2024, keytruda ® (pembrolizumab) is likely to be the most sold drug The checkpoint inhibitor beat rival PD-1 inhibitor opdivo ® (nivolumab) in almost all areas According to the approved indications, as of November 2019, drug K has been approved for 15 tumor species and 21 indications, and drug o has become the most widely used PD-1 inhibitor in clinic Since taking the third line of SCLC in August 2018, drug o has been basically numerous particles, and has failed in many indications: the second line of SCLC, the first line of liver cancer The rapid growth in keytruda ® sales is largely due to the high frequency of its use as a monotherapy and chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer Keytruda ® as a first-line standard therapy for non-small cell lung cancer and advanced melanoma, coupled with the expansion of new indications, has an impressive sales growth rate In the near future, due to patent expiration, some drugs in the above table may fall in the ranking Revlimid ® (lenalidomide) will welcome its own generic drugs in 2022 However, Bristol Myers Squibb is slightly relieved that the drug is expected to generate $36.7 billion in revenue between now and 2022 In January 2019, Bristol Myers Squibb purchased celgene for $74 billion, and took lenalidomide, the heavyweight product of multiple myeloma In the domestic market, Baiji Shenzhou is responsible for the sales of lenalidomide Due to the relatively high price, the market is not full With the generic drugs of Shuanglu pharmaceutical, Zhengda Tianqing and Qilu pharmaceutical coming into the market, the price of lenalidomide also began to fall off a cliff, from the initial 20000 or so to the current 34000 Not surprisingly, two cornerstone drugs for multiple myeloma: lenalidomide and bortezomib, have been purchased in volume From 2023, eylea (Aflibercept) and stellara (ustekinumab) will also face a decline in sales Eylea's biological analogues are expected to start selling in 2024, so sales of Novartis' new product, beouv ® (broucizumab), for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration, will decline Beouv ® is easy to administer, with a 12 week dosing plan; Novartis has also made a bold decision to conduct head-to-head trials in an attempt to capture market share from eylea ® In the psoriasis market, Johnson & Johnson and Novartis Co., Ltd echo each other, weighing heavily IL-12 / 23 ustekinumab, with its leading advantages, is now far ahead in the psoriasis market, with sales of US $5.1 billion in 2018 Relying on head-to-head research, Novartis' IL-17 secukinumab defeated ustekinumab, making great strides in the market and catching up Johnson & Johnson is not waiting to die, and is doing its best to protect stellara ®, extending the indications of psoriasis to Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis Data source: drug ferry database Because Btk small molecule inhibitors have very good specificity, they have shown very good advantages in the treatment of B-cell malignant tumors and some B-cell immune diseases Therefore, Btk inhibitors have become the most promising drugs in hematoma market Since its approval in 2013, the BTK inhibitor imbruvica ® (ibrutinib) has been widely considered to have changed the treatment of leukemia In just four years after its launch, imbruvica's annual sales have been climbing one after another, ranking among the first-line super heavyweight bombs, reaching US $6.205 billion in 2018 However, with concerns about cardiovascular and hypertension problems, resistance due to gene mutations and competition for other Btk inhibitors, the growth rate of sales of imbruvica ® may slow down In 2019, the most exciting news for medical people is that the second generation Btk inhibitor of Baiji Shenzhou crosses the Pacific Ocean In addition to being significantly better than ibuprofen in the treatment of mantle cell lymphoma, it also carries the label of "made in China", which makes Chinese people proud Data source: drug ferry database The fierce competition between Bristol Myers Squibb / Pfizer's anticoagulant eliquis ® (apixaban) and Bayer / Johnson's xarlto ® (rivaroxaban) is just like keytruda ® and opdivo ®, and the market is surging If eliquis ® can surpass xarlto ® in sales this year and keep growing, it will become the second largest drug in the industry by 2024, next to keytruda ® In the domestic market, due to the lack of channel advantages and the late listing, apixaban has not achieved outstanding performance However, with such a huge variety, many domestic players have been ready to move Hausen pharmaceutical, Zhengda Tianqing pharmaceutical, dongyangguang pharmaceutical and Kelun Pharmaceutical It involves imitation According to the development of clopidogrel, with the expiration of apixaban patent in 2022, it is estimated that the domestic belt purchase is doomed, and the above manufacturers start a new round of price fight Finally, let's talk about Gilead's biktarvy ® The drug, approved for HIV treatment, was a huge success in its first year on the market, with a record of $1.184 billion.