New research reveals why older people should give priority to new coronavirus vaccines

This is the key conclusion of a new paper titled "Model-Technology COVID-19 Vaccine Prioritization Strategies by age and serostatus" published online January 21, 2021 in the journal Science by researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
paper uses mathematical models to predict how different vaccine distribution strategies will work in countries around the world.
study provides the basis for policy recommendations from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) that prioritize older people over health care workers.
now, when policymakers decide how and whether to implement the recommendation, this paper, which contains interactive tools, represents the numbers behind this difficult decision.
common sense suggests that you need to protect the elderly and the most vulnerable in your population first," said Daniel Larremore, a computational biologist in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Colorado Boulder and co-author of the paper.
but common sense also suggests that you need to protect front-line personnel, such as grocery store clerks and teachers, who are at higher risk of exposure.
when common sense leads you in two different directions, math can help you make decisions.
study, Larremore and co-author Kate Bubar, a graduate student in applied mathematics at the University of Colorado Boulder, worked with colleagues at Harvard's Chan Zeng-hee School of Public Health and the University of Chicago.
they referred to demographic information from different countries, as well as up-to-date data on the number of people who tested positive for COVID-19, the rate at which the virus spread, the speed at which vaccines were introduced and their estimated effectiveness.
They then simulated what would happen in five different situations, in which different groups of people were first vaccinated: children and adolescents; adults 20 to 49 years of age; adults 20 years of age or older; and adults 60 years of age or older (considering that about 30 percent of eligible people might refuse).
in the fifth case, anyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get it in sufficient supply, " he said.
results from the United States, Belgium, Brazil, China, India, Poland, South Africa, Spain and Zimbabwe are included in this paper, as are many more countries.
different strategic effects, good or bad, depending on local conditions, but there are also some key findings.
, in most cases, giving priority to vaccinating adults over the age of 60 can save the most lives.
is the strongest predicter of vulnerability," said Larremore, a spokesman for the Group.
as you get older, your chances of dying from COVID-19 multiply.
"He points out that while pre-existing conditions such as asthma increase the risk of serious illness or death, age increases vulnerability."
the researchers also note that while vaccines now distributed are thought to have about a 90 to 95 percent chance of being protected from serious disease, they do not yet know how they can prevent infection and transmission.
if they are not well blocked and asymptomatic transmitters abound, then vaccinating older people makes the most sense.
even if there is nothing else, they can be protected from serious diseases.
only if the virus is under control and the vaccine is known to do a good job of preventing infection and transmission, it is necessary to give priority to vaccination for young people.
is not the case in the United States.
bubar said, "For front-line workers who may be frustrated that they are not part of the first vaccination population, we hope this study provides some clear information."
we realized it was a huge sacrifice for them, but our research shows it's going to save lives.
" they found that faster vaccine rollouts could also help.
, for example, if the rate of vaccine roll-out doubles under current transmission conditions, coVID-19 mortality could be reduced by about 23 per cent over the next three months, equivalent to 65,000 fewer deaths.
paper also suggests that it may make sense to require young people who have tested positive to be vaccinated later in a situation where SARS-CoV-2 has infected large populations and vaccines are in short supply.
Larremore said, "Our study shows that giving priority to people who are not yet infected with SARS-CoV-2 allows communities with severe outbreaks to make full use of the first vaccines and may be able to achieve some group immunity more quickly."
" the researchers stress that vaccines themselves are not the only strategy to help defeat COVID-19.
To get the vaccine into people's hands before the virus infects, we need to not only roll it out quickly and reach the most vulnerable people," Larremore said.
we must also adopt masks, distance and sensible policies to stop the spread of the virus.
" Reference: 1.Kate M. Bubar et al. Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus. Science, 2021, doi:10.1126/science.abe6959. 2.Why older adults must go to the front of the vaccine line