New trend of economy and Industry: great potential of health industry

2013-04-18 source: China's economy may fluctuate upward (weak growth) in the first three quarters of this year in Shanghai Securities News, and may decline in the last quarter From 2013 to 2014, China's economy may undergo a process of adjustment It is not until 2015 that China's economy will be able to walk out of this round of adjustment and enter the track of medium speed growth The industries with development potential in the future mainly include energy conservation and environmental protection industry, ecological industry, marine industry, information industry, green industry, cultural industry, big health industry, productive service industry, modern agriculture and industries related to new urbanization What's the new trend of China's economy in the short term (2013) The whole year will show a trend of "up before and down after" This is the opposite of the trend in 2012, which was the first three seasons of decline and the fourth quarter of rebound In the first three quarters of 2013, China's economy is likely to fluctuate upward (weak growth) and downward in the last quarter There are several reasons why the economy will continue to fluctuate upward (weak growth) in the first three quarters of this year First, the economic rebound at the end of 2012 is still in full swing, and "path dependence" makes this rebound last for some time Second, the change of government has brought new confidence to investors and consumers, thus driving the economy upward Third, the central government proposes to promote new urbanization After emphasizing the promotion of new urbanization, local governments, capital markets and real estate enterprises are encouraged, thus driving the economy to continue to move upward Fourth, the international economic situation has improved, especially the continued recovery of the U.S economy, the stabilisation of the EU economy and the improvement of Japan's economy, which have stimulated China's exports and driven the economy upward There are two reasons why the economy may decline at the end of the year First, in May last year, China adopted policy measures to stabilize growth (to a certain extent, stimulus policies), and the effect of such stimulus policies will generally last for about a year For example, the 4 trillion investment at the beginning of 2009 brought about a rapid economic rebound, lasting about one year In fact, since the second quarter of 2010, China's economy has shown a downward trend, with GDP growth falling from 12.1% in the first quarter of 2010 to 7.4% in the third quarter of 2012 The stimulus policy is a short-term measure to solve the problem, once the stimulus policy stops, the economy may enter the downward channel Because this kind of "heart strengthening needle" of stimulus policy can't be beaten all the time, and there will be a negative effect if it is beaten too much Therefore, although the steady growth measures taken last year have brought obvious rebound effect since October last year, the rebound will not last for a long time, at most about one year, and the economy may show a downward trend by the end of this year Second, new macro-control policies may be adopted in the second and third quarters of this year Why do we adopt macro-control policies? That's because with the rebound and rise of GDP, industrial added value and other indicators, several major indicators also rebounded, namely CPI and house prices In fact, CPI and house prices have rebounded since the end of last year CPI in February 2013 has reached 3.2%, and house prices in some hot cities have rebounded For example, in Beijing, the growth rate of some real estate projects has exceeded 20% to 30% Of course, the new "five national policies" will play a certain role in restraining this wave of rebound If CPI and house prices continue to rebound for another few months, the people and the market will not be able to bear it At that time, the central government may take new macro-control measures, which will not take too long, and the economy will decline again From the long-term trend of China's economy From 2013 to 2014, China's economy may undergo a process of adjustment It is not until 2015 that China's economy will be able to walk out of this round of adjustment and enter the track of medium speed growth Over the past 30 years, China's economy has maintained a high growth rate of about 10% Now that the stage of high-speed growth is over, China's economy will enter a period of medium speed growth The medium speed growth rate of about 6% - 8% will last until around 2020, and may last until 2030 with 4% - 6% after 2020 In this way, the level of medium developed countries that Comrade Xiaoping said will be achieved 20 years ahead of time in 2030 After reaching the level of medium-sized developed countries, the growth rate will further fall to about 2% - 4%, just like in most developed countries today This is the law of economic development Other countries have come this way, and China is no exception Of course, this does not exclude that the government can increase the economic growth by more than 10% in some years through stimulus policies, but that is unsustainable, because our potential economic growth rate has declined, and the constraints on resources and environment have become more and more serious, that is, air pollution, water pollution, land pollution and other environmental deterioration has not allowed such a high growth rate In recent years, China is in the stage of transition from high growth stage to medium growth stage The decline of economic growth rate has brought many challenges to many enterprises and industries in China Why many enterprises are facing great difficulties at present has a lot to do with this economic background However, since 2015, although China's economic growth rate is not as high as it used to be, it can still maintain a growth rate of 5% - 8% for a decade or two, which is still a high growth rate in the world So China's overall economic outlook is optimistic Why optimistic? There are two main reasons First, China's industrialization and urbanization are in the middle stage, which is equivalent to a person in his or her youth With the continuous promotion of industrialization and urbanization, China's economy will maintain a medium or low-speed growth for another decade or two Second, the Central Committee has begun to stress the need to accelerate reform As long as we promote reform, we can mobilize the enthusiasm and creativity of all the main bodies, promote technological progress, promote integration of the two, promote structural upgrading and obtain new productivity, which is called reform dividend Reform is China's biggest dividend in the future From these two aspects, China's long-term economic growth is generally optimistic According to the analysis of market trend and the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the industries with development potential in the future are mainly as follows 1、 Energy conservation and environmental protection industry In the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it is particularly emphasized to vigorously develop energy-saving and low-carbon industries Why is the industry promising? There are two main reasons: first, consumer recognition Now when consumers buy any product, they begin to pay attention to whether the product is energy-saving, green and low-carbon If the product meets these requirements, they are willing to buy it even if it is expensive Otherwise, it will not be cheaper, which will become the market demand power for industrial development Secondly, governments around the world, including our government, have formulated many policies to support and encourage the development of energy conservation and environmental protection Industry 2、 Ecological industry The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the construction of ecological civilization The construction of ecological civilization needs the development of ecological industry from the perspective of industry Ecological industry includes forestry, part of agriculture, aquaculture and desert management Facing the huge pressure of resources and environment, China needs to develop ecological industry to realize the purpose of saving resources, protecting environment and developing economy 3、 Marine industry The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China stresses the need to vigorously develop the marine economy and build a powerful marine country Behind the development of marine economy is the development of marine industry Marine industry includes fishing industry, oil and gas industry, new energy industry, etc Some coastal provinces and cities have set up blue economic test areas to speed up the development of marine industry 4、 Information industry The information industry once ushered in a climax of development in the 1990s Although it encountered some setbacks around 2000, it soon prospered again The information industry is ushering in a new round of high-speed growth, which may lead to major technological breakthroughs, especially in the intersection of information industry, industry and other industries, which will generate many new industries We have clearly felt that the information industry is changing the way of production and life The development of information industry can continuously reduce the cost of information, so as to promote the development of other industries and benefit all industries So the information industry has great potential 5、 Green industry Before the industry, add an attribute - green, that is, green industry Green here is not only the concept of color, but also refers to resource conservation, environmental friendliness or energy conservation and emission reduction An important direction for the next industrial upgrading is green and low carbon, which is the trend of the world Those who follow the trend will prosper and those who go against it will die If an industrial enterprise can do better than other enterprises in energy conservation and environmental protection, and control the cost within a certain range, it can occupy a new market and gain new competitiveness 6、 Cultural industry The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes cultural construction in particular, and puts forward specific policies for the development of cultural industry, including carrying out nationwide reading activities and innovating cultural (300336, stock bar) formats The government's policy encouragement is only one aspect More importantly, the cultural industry conforms to the direction of upgrading the consumption structure There are many new consumption needs to be met by the cultural industry, such as "learning, happiness, health and beauty" With the improvement of people's living standards, we all need to improve the quality of ourselves and their children, improve the quality of our lives, and meet the needs of the cultural industry 7、 Big health industry The big health industry here refers to the medical industry, medical industry, health care industry, pension service industry, etc The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry and pension service industry With the improvement of people's living standards, everyone should pursue health, happiness and longevity, which needs to be satisfied by this industry, so the big health industry has a huge development prospect 8、 Producer services It includes financial industry, logistics industry and business service industry, among which there is a part of business service industry that intersects with information industry In terms of financial industry, the report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized the development of private financial industry, which was previously restricted, and now it is advocated to vigorously develop In terms of logistics industry, several of the world's top 500 are logistics enterprises, and China's modern logistics industry is just in its infancy The express companies in the logistics industry are mainly express companies in the same city In the future, more and more people will buy things online, which needs the support of logistics express industry, so the industry has a bright future 9、 Modern agriculture Modern agriculture includes all kinds of sightseeing agriculture, tourism agriculture, facility agriculture, leisure agriculture, experience agriculture, urban agriculture and foreign exchange agriculture Modern agriculture has a higher return on investment than many people usually think The industrial chain of modern agriculture is longer and the added value of industry is higher At present, in the suburbs of many big cities, investment in modern agriculture, such as agritainment, pays off well 10、 Industries related to new urbanization New urbanization involves real estate, construction and many service industries Urbanization means the transfer of population and production factors from low efficiency areas to high efficiency areas, which can improve the efficiency of the whole national economy and bring the development of many related industries The above ten industries include industry and information industry In general, judge whether an industry has