Next year or is the year of loss for pig farming?

 　　Analysts: a short-term rebound in pig prices may lead to reluctance to sellKZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On the first trading day of this week, the hog futures, which were "unstoppable" in the previous period, ushered in the daily limit
.
On October 12, the spot price of live pigs continued to rise.
The 2111 futures contract rose by more than 5%.
The far-month contract was subject to high premiums, and the increase was significantly lower than the near-month contract
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At the beginning of the National Day holiday, the performance of the consumer side fell short of expectations, the spot price of live pigs continued to fall, and the price in the northern region fell below 10 yuan/kg across the board
.
However, starting from October 5th, the spot price in the northern region stopped falling and rebounded, and there was a six-day continuous rise that had not been seen in many days
.
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　　Xu Xiaoyan, a pig analyst at Guohai Liangshi Futures, said that from the supply side, the pattern of ample supply remains unchanged, and short-term spot rises may lead to reluctance to sell
.
In the first half of the year, the growth rate of piglet inventory continued to be positive, which means that the number of piglets will continue to increase in the fourth quarter
.
The slaughter weight of live pigs continued to drop slightly on a weekly basis, down to about 123kg/head, which was the upper edge of the range of slaughter weight in normal years
.
During the National Day holiday, the willingness to export frozen products increased, but as prices fell to a low level, the willingness of slaughter companies to take the initiative to divide and enter the warehouse also increased to a certain extent.
Overall, the current frozen product inventory pressure is still relatively high
.
"In the short-term, we should pay attention to whether the continued rebound of spot prices will lead to reluctance to sell
.
Short-term reluctance to sell will help extend the rebound time and expand, but it may focus on the next peak of demand
.
" She said
.
 KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhong Yuan, head of hedging strategy at Anliang Futures Research Institute, believes that the path to clearing pig production capacity has not changed, and the potential marginal turning point is approaching
.
The production capacity of live pigs directly depends on the stock of breeding sows, which determines the supply of live pigs after 10 months.
The most direct forward-looking indicator of changes in the stock of breeding sows is the price
.
As of the first week of October, the national price of dual-reproductive sows was 49.
31 yuan/kg, which was about 27 yuan/kg lower than the high point in November last year (76.
5 yuan/kg first-line), indicating that the current round of reproductive sow production capacity ( In the second quarter, the stock of 45.
64 million heads) has not yet been fully cleared, and the post-live pig stock (about 450 million heads) remains at a high level for the time being
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"The more forward-looking indicator of pig production capacity is piglets, which determines the market situation of pigs after six months
.
Since the price of piglets has accelerated in the first quarter of this year, it has been less than RMB 25/kg as of the first week of October, which is close to 2019.
At the position where it started to rise in February (about 21 yuan/kg), the price of piglets may bottom out
.
This indicates that the marginal turning point (declining growth rate of stocks) of live pig supply and demand may be imminent.
The main reason behind this is the increasing loss of the whole industry It has been 4 months since Fanfan’s loss in June, and the loss of outsourced piglets has been as long as 7 months
.
” Zhong Yuan said
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From the demand side, the overall performance of the National Day holiday fell short of expectations, but it is indeed recovering
.
From the data point of view, the operating rate and fresh sales rate of slaughter companies have both increased month-on-month, which also shows that demand is recovering
.
At the same time, the continued rebound of spot prices will also stimulate some additional demand for downstream and frozen products replenishment
.
The improvement of the current general environment will make it easier to strengthen the market's optimistic expectations for the peak demand for bacon in November
.
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　　Zhang Ruihao, a live pig researcher at Meierya Futures, said that in the later stage, the downside of live pig spot prices is limited, but there is no obvious upward trend or motivation
.
From the perspective of fundamentals, although the price of live pigs may rise in the third and fourth quarters, the driving force is not strong and the pressure is high, and the final range may be relatively limited
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"Domestic hog prices have continued to fall for three months, and finally a sustained rebound after the National Day.
At the same time, with the increase in purchasing and reserves and the approaching demand for bacon season, the short-term spot price rebound may continue
.
" Xu Xiaoyan said, but China In the long run, it is still not the highest peak of production capacity.
At the same time, the elimination of piglets and high-efficiency sows is not obvious.
The possibility of price reversal is unlikely.
Consider a short-term rebound first, and there is a greater possibility of a second dip
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Xu Xiaoyan believes that Monday's futures trading limit to lighten their positions reflects the exit of profit-making short positions, and the continuity of the rebound still needs further observation
.
In addition, after the limit of the futures price, the premium of the far-month contract was once again expanded to more than 4,000 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the profit of forward aquaculture was given, which may attract the intervention of industrial hedging at any time
.
Although the short-term rebound of spot prices is expected to continue, in the case of a high valuation of futures prices, we still have to beware of the risk of chasing high prices
.
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　　Source: Futures Daily Author: Zheng Quan, the copyright belongs to the original author, pay tribute to the original author! If there is any infringement, please contact to delete
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Next year or is the year of loss for pig raising?KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　I still remember that when the price of pigs was unattainable last year, almost everyone said that the price of pigs could not return to the previous level of six or seven yuan a catty
.
But in a blink of an eye, the current pig price not only "back to the past", it has even regressed several years from the past
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Since the first quarter of this year, the price of pigs has been declining successively, from more than 20 yuan a catty a year ago to about 5 yuan a catty now, a full three-quarter drop
.
In some areas, it has fallen to more than four yuan a catty, and it may continue to fall
.
Some people even worry that the price of pigs will fall to the historically low price starting with "3"
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Regardless of whether this worry will happen or not, based on the current price, the current pig farming has entered a period of serious losses
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Judging from the current stock of live pigs and reserve breeding pigs, the overall recovery of live pig production has far exceeded expectations
.
Although many farmers have begun to sell sows, the number is still limited
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Due to the high profits of pig breeding in the previous two years, farmers have accumulated more funds
.
Therefore, many farmers still have some financial support and still want to bet on the market in the later stage, so the enthusiasm for reducing production capacity is not very high
.
Therefore, this sluggish pig cycle may last longer than in previous years
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Based on the current size of live pigs, gilts, and piglets, it is unlikely that pig prices will change significantly before the second quarter of next year
.
The pig price is likely to remain at about 5 yuan a catty
.
The trend of pig prices after the second quarter of next year is mainly determined by the production capacity reduction of live pigs before then
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　If the rate of capacity reduction is still carried out at the current rate, then the pig price will likely remain at the current price level before the first half of next year
.
Now, a pig loses a few hundred yuan
.
In this way, next year may be a big year for pig farming losses
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The market for live pigs is closely related to the market for poultry, because pork and poultry are very substitutes
.
If pork prices continue to be sluggish, it will inevitably take away a lot of consumption that was originally poultry meat
.
Therefore, it is difficult for the poultry market to take care of itself when the live pig market is extremely sluggish
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　However, it is worth noting that due to the high price of pork in the previous two years, pork consumption habits have undergone major changes
.
A lot of the original consumption of pork has been transformed into other consumption such as poultry, beef or fish
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Due to this change in consumption habits, the current pig price has no more "lethal effects" on other meat products, especially poultry products, as it did two years ago
.
KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From this perspective, perhaps next year's poultry market may not closely follow the live pig market
.
What do you think about the poultry market next year?KZy China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry