Nonferrous metal market long and short glue copper price shock rebound idea is the mainstay

Macro: From a macro perspective, the final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the euro area in October recorded 45.
9, up from the previous value, but still at a historical low; the final value of the German manufacturing PMI in October was 42.
1, the manufacturing boom declined, and the economy contracted significantly; the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States reported 48.
3 in October, 0.
6 percentage points
lower than the expected value 。 China's Caixin manufacturing PMI final value in October was 51.
7, more than expected to rebound 0.
7 percentage points, from the Caixin manufacturing data, October China's economy is recovering at a relatively rapid pace, if demand gradually improves, the manufacturing industry will have a stable foundation
.
The European Commission lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 to 1.
1% and 1.
2% respectively; Lowered global economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 to 2.
9% and 3%.

The global macroeconomic weakness pattern has been determined, the euro area has entered a period of long-term coexistence of low growth and low inflation, while China is facing the pressure of "stagflation", China's counter-cyclical adjustment in the fourth quarter has been strengthened, the Sino-US trade stage agreement has been gradually reached, and copper prices are expected to usher in a phased rise
.

Industrial fundamentals: From the perspective of industrial fundamentals, as of this Friday, SMM clean mine spot TC was reported at $58.
50 / ton, down $0.
50 / ton from last Friday, and traders and smelters on TC prices diverged; CESCO Asia Copper Conference will be held in Shanghai from 19 to 22 this month, and TC awaits benchmark guidance
.
In the fourth quarter, the second batch of scrap copper approvals fell again, and the tension in scrap copper supply escalated
.
On the consumption side, the overall consumption weakness persists, but we can also see marginal improvement in real estate and infrastructure investment, and this month, the demand side pays attention to the implementation of the remaining 40% of the State Grid's grid investment this year and the construction of 5G base stations
.
After the end of the inventory dematerialization cycle, the inventory of the year is still at a low level
.

This week, copper prices were greatly affected by macro benefits, and the center of gravity of copper prices moved up to 47,000 yuan / ton
.
At present, the world is in the tide of interest rate cuts, this week China through MLF interest rate cut 5 basis points, China and the United States agreed to gradually cancel the previous tariffs, copper prices were greatly boosted, but Shanghai copper than London copper performance is more rational, the market looks forward to seeing the implementation of the first phase of Sino-US trade agreement
.
From an industrial perspective, the further reduction of the 14th batch of scrap copper approvals will gradually affect processors, which in turn will affect the supply of refined copper, while there is still uncertainty in Chile's mine end disturbance, and copper prices will be strongly supported
by prices.
Near the end of the year, a significant boost in consumption is less likely, but there are still 40% of grid investment that has not met expectations and the construction
of 5G industrial Internet of Things at the end of the year.
Operationally
, it is recommended to operate with long ideas.

Since November, the pessimistic expectations of global macro policies have weakened, and there is still greater uncertainty in policies, but considering that the US and Australian Reserve Bank competed for "three consecutive declines" and then pressed "pause", while China's macro policy year-end stability maintenance hedging expectations strengthened, the market expects new progress in Sino-US trade negotiations to land, copper and aluminum are in a neutral environment, and the futures market is currently colored long and short glue, the operation suggests that copper and aluminum in the fourth quarter to shock rebound ideas, short-term fast forward and fast out operation
.