Northeast Pharmaceutical: transformation and transformation

At the time of reform, the efficiency transformation was accelerated: as an old state-owned pharmaceutical enterprise, Northeast Pharmaceutical was undergoing a transformation In recent years, the company has carried out changes in equity structure, management and industrial layout In 2013, Wei Haijun, the former director of Research Office of Shenyang municipal government, served as the chairman of the company, carrying out a drastic reform of Northeast Pharmaceutical, adjusting the organizational structure, streamlining personnel, and implementing flat management Based on the business of APIs, preparations and pharmaceuticals, the company has added new biomedical and pharmaceutical engineering industries We believe that Northeast Pharmaceutical is at the turning point of industry and company, and 2013 will be the first year of reform Focus on the core varieties of preparations, "exclusive + basic drugs" two wheel drive: we believe that the market underestimates the growth of the company's preparation business Its core varieties, such as integumentary, fosfomycin and ephedrine, are all basic drug varieties, enjoying rapid growth in the primary market, the highest retail price of low-cost ephedrine is raised, and the profits of the series of products of Apocynum are rising Integument and tromethamine are the newly selected national basic drug varieties, and the follow-up effect will be gradually reflected The core varieties are either exclusive varieties or under the control of the state, so the competition is not fierce, and the probability of the bidding price falling sharply is small VC price is facing a turning point, and it is expected to usher in a recovery opportunity: VC price has been an important factor affecting the performance of Northeast Pharmaceutical VC price war basically takes five years as a cycle, and the low price lasts for about three years, which is at the end of the decline cycle Small and medium-sized VC enterprises can not bear the low price, and some production capacity has begun to exit We expect that the turnaround of VC API business this year will be a high probability event New industries, new opportunities: the company is cultivating biomedical and pharmaceutical engineering to make it a new profit growth point At the end of last year, Benxi biology obtained the registration approval of hepatitis B virus and HIV testing kit, and new products will be launched in the future Under the background of controlling the proportion of drugs, IVD industry has the potential of faster growth Once the company can transform successfully, it will improve the valuation space Profit forecast: Northeast Pharmaceutical is facing the turning point of VC industry and the critical period of corporate transformation, and its performance and valuation are expected to achieve double improvement We predict that the EPS of the company will be -0.28, 0.34 and 0.57 yuan in 2013-2015, respectively Based on the company's performance is expected to reverse, we will give the rating of "overweight" for the first time, with the target price of 10 yuan Risk tip: risk 1: affected by overcapacity, VC price continues to be depressed; risk 2: drug bidding system in each province forces drug price reduction; risk 3: new industry cultivation is later than expected.