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Overnight, the Shanghai aluminum main 1901 contract opened at 13815 yuan / ton, the opening slightly rose to touch the high 13835 yuan / ton, and then due to the difficulty of supporting the high, some bulls lack of confidence began to reduce their positions, Shanghai aluminum jumped over several black lines fell below the daily moving average, touched down 13785 yuan / ton, the end around 13800 yuan / ton a wide fluctuation, the center of gravity sinking at the end of the day recorded the lowest price of 13775 yuan / ton, yesterday ended at 13790 yuan / ton, recorded a small black line, the daily MACD red line lengthened, Hold on to the
5-day moving average.
Last night's metal green fat red thin, Shanghai aluminum trading activity last night is not high, below there is no strong driving force, give up the daily gains, because the upper 10-day moving average has a certain suppression, it is expected that today's Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weak and fluctuate between 13700 ~ 13800 yuan / ton, and the liter discount is between 60 ~ 20 yuan / ton
.
On the one hand, the domestic aluminum production cost has been higher than the aluminum price for a long time, which has increased the willingness of aluminum enterprises to reduce production, but in view of the high restart cost of the electrolyzer, the possibility of large-scale production reduction is small; On the other hand, the total primary aluminum production capacity in the second half of the year maintained an increase month-on-month, and it is expected that new production capacity will still be concentrated in the fourth quarter, in view of the high cost or slow down the launch speed
.
On the whole, aluminum prices also affect the reduction of existing production capacity and the launch of new production capacity, due to the recent implementation of production restrictions in the heating season, the release of production restriction news or drive the rebound of aluminum prices, but we believe that in the context of weak demand and high inventory, there is not much
upward space.
It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended that the new order wait and see
.
