November 24 Shanghai aluminum noon comment

In terms of fundamentals, SMM inventory on the 22nd reported 1.
024 million tons, down 14,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 105,000 tons, down 07,000 tons from last Thursday; October unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports were 479,500 tons, down 13,000 tons from the previous month, and imports were 297,000 tons, an increase of 44,000 tons; Yunnan Wenshan aluminum accident production reduction has basically recovered, and the two aluminum plants under Guangzhou Investment began to overhaul and stop production due to losses, and the start fell to 50%, affecting the production capacity of about 200,000 tons , Chongqing Banner can reduce production by about 30,000 tons, and western hydropower production by 50,000 tons; The processing cost of aluminum rods is high, and the amount of ingots is declining
in some areas.

Overall, the short-term situation remains weak; In the medium and long term, for aluminum prices to reverse the current decline, there must be a further significant contraction on the supply side, or a significant improvement on the demand side, which may require an improvement
in the real estate sector.