November 28 copper market morning review

Macro, the US dollar index is still running weakly, the market is expected to raise interest rates repeatedly, and the US economic data is weakening; Domestically, the epidemic has been repeated, and domestic active policies have occurred frequently, including RRR cuts and financial support for real estate, but the economic recovery in November may still be as expected
.
On the supply side, spot TC continued to rise month-on-month, and next year's long order is expected to be $88, indicating that the mine end is loose next year; There was an increase in smelting in October, and it is estimated that there will still be an increase in November and December, but the interference of crude copper tension still exists; The import window is closed from time to time, and the import supply is still limited; The supply margin of scrap copper is tightening
.
Domestic demand, prices lagged behind, just demand resilience appeared, but the epidemic suppressed, overall consumption is still flat
.
Domestic inventories fell month-on-month, and premiums were firm
.

Looking forward to the future market, copper prices are still facing greater downward pressure, and in the negative feedback of overseas liquidity coupled with the impact of the domestic epidemic has not subsided, copper is likely to enter a macro weak period
of "slowing down overseas economic growth and not significantly repairing the domestic economy" in the next 3 months.
However, in the short term, considering the macro aspect, although the economic performance is weak, there is still strong policy support, and in the spot aspect, inventories remain at a low level, and there is no obvious downward synergy, and it may be difficult for prices to get out of the stalemate
in the short term.