November 3 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

Fundamentally, it is expected that the northern region will be affected by environmental factors and the task requirements of dual control of energy consumption, and the supply side will remain tight
before the end of the heating season.
The consumer side holds the goods at a high price, and the receiver waits and sees the price reduction, and the overall transaction is average
.
The recent decline in aluminum prices has stimulated downstream procurement willingness, coupled with the weakening of power restrictions and production restrictions in some regions, and the slight improvement in domestic demand, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to consumption and inventory changes
.

Recently, the volatility of aluminum prices has continued, and Shanghai aluminum has always fluctuated around the 20,000 mark; From a fundamental point of view, the current aluminum market still lacks certain favorable stimuli, and the inventory side continues to put pressure on the price to curb the rise in aluminum prices; On the other hand, on the macro side, the domestic October PMI performance is not as expected, coupled with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the upcoming release of non-farm payrolls, the market is mostly holding a wait-and-see attitude, and the short-term role of price guidance is weakened; Overall, driven by the recovery of coal prices, aluminum prices may have a certain low rebound demand in the short term, and attention can be paid to whether it can stand above
20,000.