October 25 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

Fundamentally, the double-limit policy is still continuing to advance, and the preferential electricity price
of the electrolytic aluminum industry has recently been canceled in Sichuan.
The supply side affected by the limited power is still tightening, and the news of power restrictions and production restrictions is transmitted in Guizhou, and it is expected that the power restrictions and tank shutdowns will affect the production capacity of about 190,000 tons, and Xinjiang and other regions may face a new round of production
cuts.

In the short term, due to the fluctuation of macro news and the weakening of cost support, aluminum prices have returned to around 21,000, and the continuous accumulation of current inventories also reflects the weakness of consumption, and the overall trend of Shanghai aluminum may be difficult to change weak; However, the dual control requirements of domestic energy consumption are still there, the production limit has not changed or even increased, short-term aluminum prices continue to fall is unlikely to fall, the decline may gradually slow down, there is a possibility of rebound in the week, pay attention to the evening disk trend, the shock range refers to the 21200-22000 range, and it is recommended to replenish appropriately at a low level in operation
.