Oil demand has yet to be hit by Omicron, and EIA has cut its oil price forecast for next year

On Wednesday (December 8), U.
S.
crude oil did not fluctuate much, after two consecutive gains in the previous two trading days, as news showed that Omicron's symptoms may be mild, and oil demand has not yet been significantly impacted by the Omicron variant, so market concerns have cooled
.
However, the US government lowered its crude oil price forecast
through the end of 2022.

Early studies suggest that Omicron's symptoms may be mild

South Africa's president said on Monday that the coronavirus is spreading faster in the country than ever before, suggesting that the new Omicron variant is driving the pandemic, but there are early indications that Omicron may not cause severe illness as easily as other virus variants
.

Researchers at a large hospital complex in Pretoria reported that their COVID patients were much sicker than those previously admitted, and the same tendency
exists in other hospitals.
In fact, they say, most of their COVID patients were admitted to the hospital for other reasons and did not present with COVID symptoms
.

But scientists caution against pinning too much hope on the potentially good news of milder symptoms, or on the possible bad news — early evidence suggests immunity from previous infections has limited
effect on Omicron.
The variant was discovered only last month, and experts need more research to talk about it
with certainty.
In addition to this, the true destructive power of the coronavirus is not always immediate, with hospitalizations and deaths often much later than the initial outbreak.

Emily M.
Emily, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
Referring to the milder signs of symptoms caused by the variant, Dr.
S.
Gurley said, "It wouldn't be surprising if that is, but I'm not sure we can draw conclusions
right now.
" ”

On December 7, local time, WHO released a weekly epidemiological report
on new coronary pneumonia.
The report notes that the Omicron strain has emerged in 57 countries and territories, with the majority of cases linked to travel
.

WHO said that the main circulating strain in many countries is still the Delta strain, especially Europe and the United States, and it is not yet possible to determine the impact
of the Omicron strain on the global epidemic.

Oil demand has not yet been significantly hit by the Omicron variant

After the first discovery of the Omicron variant in late November, oil prices plunged into a bear market,

"The key question is how many travel restrictions will be in the coming weeks," Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects Ltd.
, told Bloomberg Television in an interview "there's a lot of pent-up demand
.
" ”

Globally, air passenger capacity has barely changed
recently.
Data from air travel intelligence firm OAG showed that in the week ending Dec.
6, the index fell just 0.
5%
from the previous seven days.
In South Africa, the epicenter of Omicron, flight bookings remained low and road use remained stable
.

For now, the main restrictions remain limited to a few countries
with low oil consumption.
According to TomTom Plc, Austria was in lockdown before the latest outbreak, and traffic in Vienna has fallen to its lowest level
since August.
In Salzburg, recent data is the lowest
since January.

According to the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration, South Africa consumed about 550,000 barrels of petroleum products
per day before the pandemic.
Austria consumes around 280,000 barrels of crude oil
per day.

The United States lowered its oil demand and oil price forecasts

The U.
S.
government lowered its crude oil price forecast
through the end of 2022 due to the short-term impact on global oil demand triggered by various travel restrictions triggered by the outbreak of the omicron variant of the new coronavirus.

According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration lowered its price forecasts for Brent, the global benchmark crude oil and U.
S.
benchmark crude futures, by nearly $2/b
from both previous forecast levels.
The agency also lowered its oil and liquid fuel demand forecasts for the fourth and first quarters, while raising forecasts for OPEC+ and U.
S
.
oil production.

The report comes as the Biden administration continues to focus on lowering gasoline prices and OPEC has just decided to increase oil production
as planned.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the omicron variant on oil demand, OPEC has left flexibility
to temporarily revise production schedules.