On the eve of the Fed meeting, Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern

On the macro front, on the economic front, the preliminary annualized q/qd real GDP of the United States unexpectedly recorded -1.
4%.

However, in terms of some of the breakdown data, it is still not terribly bad
.
The dollar index remained strong, while the three major U.
S.
stock indexes also performed well
.
On the other hand, the US core PCE price index recorded 5.
2% in the first quarter, lower than the expected 5.
4%, but higher than the previous reading, and copper prices remained relatively stable
in the process.

On the supply side, domestic copper mine TC continued to rise, supply-side disruption rate increased, Peru's Las Bambas copper mine interrupted operations due to road blockages, Peru's Cuajone copper mine has not resumed production, and this week the Peruvian government declared a state of emergency to resume its operations
as soon as possible.

On the demand side, the operating rate of fine copper rods this week was 55.
58%, up 4.
65%
from the previous month.
With the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai, enterprises have entered the stage of resuming work and production in an orderly manner, this week is the last week of April, if logistics and transportation in various places continue to recover, enterprises that have stopped production due to raw material shortage may be cleared next week
.
At the same time, in the near future, favorable policies in real estate have been introduced in various places, so the demand side is expected to continue to improve
.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks rose by 13,300 mt to 148,500 mt and SHFE stocks fell by 04,300 mt to 27,900 mt
.

On the whole, currently affected by the epidemic, the pattern of weak supply and demand is obvious
.
The continued rise of the US dollar has an adverse impact on copper prices, so copper prices may remain volatile until the Fed's interest rate decision in May
.