Opdivo besieged on all sides, how can BMS create new world after acquiring new base?

Recently, BMS executives pointed out that they expect new products to be released after the merger of the company and Xinji But analysts question the company's claim that there is uncertainty about how the merger will drive reliable revenue and long-term earnings growth In November last year, BMS announced that opdivo combined with yervoy as a phase III clinical trial of maintenance therapy for small cell lung cancer failed to reach the main end point, while in October, opdivo as a single drug therapy for second-line treatment of small cell lung cancer also failed to reach the main end point In contrast, its competitors are quite amazing Keytruda has beat opdivo in global sales Tecentriq has achieved positive results in clinical trials of small cell lung cancer, so opdivo's position is in jeopardy If BMS fails to expand the potential market prospect of opdivo in the lung cancer market in the future, it will only aggravate the continuous challenges faced by the drug, let alone compete with keysruda, a blockbuster drug of MSD According to the 2018 results released by BMS, the company's total revenue is US $22.561 billion, an increase of 9% compared with 2017 The total R & D investment is US $6.345 billion, accounting for 28.1% of revenue, down 2.1% compared with 2017 More than 50% of the total revenue component is jointly contributed by opdivo and eliquis Among them, opdivo achieved a 36% increase, reaching US $6.735 billion, an increase from 31% in 2017 However, investors are still worried about the fact that the trial of the drug has failed repeatedly The company believes that its GAAP earnings per share in 2019 can reach US $3.75-3.85, and the revenue may only achieve median growth without any impact of the acquisition of new base But vamil divan, an analyst at Credit Suisse, released a note to investors, noting that revenue companies issued growth guidance that was less than 7% of market expectations Charlie Bancroft, chief financial officer of BMS, attributed the lower growth forecast to a number of factors, including the loss of revenue from the partnership with Sanofi that will end in 2018 The two sides worked together to promote the drugs Plavix and Avapro The new agreement in 2012 stipulates that the cooperation between the two sides will end in 2018 BMS reiterated the general intention stated when it announced the merger with new base last month, and looked forward to the new product launch brought by the transaction to boost revenue growth BMS is very optimistic about two new drugs, both of which are car-t cell therapy: LISO cel for B-cell hematoma and bb2121 for multiple myeloma Christopher boerner, head of business at BMS, said LISO cell is likely to surpass the two car-t treatments currently available for B-cell tumors: Novartis kymriah and Gilead yescarta Because in the previous clinical trials, compared with kymriah and yescarta, the incidence of cytokine release syndrome (CRS) caused by LISO cel is very low, which is a fatal side effect brought by treatment, and will cause patients to be hospitalized for monitoring at any time Boerner is also optimistic about bb2121, a car-t therapy for multiple myeloma developed by Xinji and Bluebird The overall response rate of bb2121 in patients with advanced cancer treated previously is 96%, while the response rate of current standard treatment is 29% - 59% "In general, the car-t platform of Xinji is an important driving point and differentiated value of the merged company We think car-t is a very exciting market opportunity for oncology franchise, because this model has proved unprecedented data of efficacy," boerner said Boerner also acknowledged that the company ' Hand, this will reduce the overall cost of the insurance company, and may give LISO cel an obvious advantage in patient selection However, the success of the $74 billion acquisition also depends on the blockbuster Revlimid, a multiple myeloma drug that brings $8 billion a year to Xinji, which is currently facing a key patent challenge Analysts at Credit Suisse estimate that if Xinji fails in the patent defense battle, the low-cost Revlimid generic may go public in 2021, which will reduce BMS's revenue by $3 billion in that year and increase its loss to $7.5 billion the next year In this regard, Dr Giovanni caforio, chairman and CEO of BMS, repeated his view that the value of the acquisition of new base should not be related to the future market prospects of Revlimid Caforio said, "in addition to six products expected to be launched in the next two years (including Tyk2, ozanimod, luspatercept, LISO cel, bb2121, fedratinib), through the acquisition of new base, it has also brought BMS a product pipeline that can be further promoted, and more new products will be launched in 2025 So I think, instead of relying on or maintaining the profitability of a single product, the market opportunity brought by the growth of a richer product line is broader, which is the real product line complementarity and performance excitement effect for the merged company " (compiled by Sina pharmaceutical / fan Dongdong) article reference source: 1 BMS talks up celgene merger to divert opera distribution 2 The skills were right: Bristol Myers has pulled a critical opera lung filling as it awards more data 3 Bristol Myers Squibb 2018 full year financial: "super commercial performance" 4 BMS withdraws application for Opdivo-Yervoy Lung Cancer Combo