OPEC meeting released a positive signal that crude oil demand is expected to resume

A few days ago, the OPEC Ministerial Joint Production Reduction Supervisory Committee (JMMC) issued a statement after the meeting, saying that it is "optimistic" about the recovery of the oil market in 2021 and that it will continue to defend the results of the production reduction.

OPEC accounts for one-third of global crude oil production, and the remaining two-thirds of oil-producing countries are partly involved in OPEC+.
So far, OPEC+'s production reduction plan has had an effect.
According to reports, substantial production cuts are reducing inventories.
At the same time, crude oil prices on the international market have also reached their highest levels since January last year.

Data released by EIA on the 3rd showed that US commercial crude oil inventories were 475.
7 million barrels last week, a month-on-month decrease of 1 million barrels.
This inventory data is the lowest level since March 2020.
Although the scale of the month-on-month decrease was lower than the 2.
3 million barrels expected by the market, it fell for the second consecutive week, and the market expected an increase of 4.
7 million barrels.
At the same time, the refinery capacity utilization rate rose by 0.
6%.

　　The market predicts that following the published data showing the month-on-month decline in commercial crude oil inventories in storage areas, future data will show a similar decline.

　　ANZ Bank (ANZ) analysts said in a report on February 1: "OPEC + restrictions on production, coupled with restrictions on the U.
S.
shale industry, should lead to a decline in inventories in the first half of 2021.
"

　　Some analysts believe that the cross-month inverse spreads between U.
S.
oil and oil distribution are at the widest level in more than a year, which is a signal that current demand and expected supply will tighten.
However, some institutions believe that the news of the decline in US crude oil commercial inventories will have less and less impact on oil prices.
The future trend of the crude oil market will be affected by the progress of vaccination and the improvement of economic prospects.

　　Ann-Louise Kittle, vice president of energy research and consulting agency De Mackenzie, said that the rapid vaccination of the new crown vaccine and the improvement of economic prospects may drive global oil demand growth by nearly 7% in 2021.

　　The recent unfavorable factor for oil prices is that the European dispute over the supply of the new crown vaccine is triggering a wider range of political and economic conflicts, and the US$1.
9 trillion rescue plan is still to be launched and implemented.
These two factors limit Upside of oil prices.

　　The impact of the epidemic has put the oil industry in adversity.
In 2020, global exploration and development capital expenditures fell by 30%, with North America experiencing the largest decline.
Even if oil prices and income rebound, the oil industry still faces a series of challenges that may limit future industry investment.

　　It is expected that in the next period of time, whether the United States can introduce a larger-scale fiscal stimulus plan, whether Saudi Arabia's plan to reduce its daily output by 1 million barrels can be sustained, the United States' attitude toward Iran, and market concerns about energy demand will continue to affect oil price trends.

Transfer from: Economic Information Daily

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