Outlook of global pharmaceutical market in 2016

Source: on December 29, 2015, among the new drugs approved this year, as many as 12 new drugs are expected to reach a sales scale of 1 billion US dollars in 2020, which can keep up with the pace of new drugs approved in 2013 At the other end of the product cycle, pharmaceutical companies are not eager to pay attention to the impact of patent expiration, because in 2016, only six patent drugs with sales of more than $1 billion expired, of which xiumeile is the most severely hit, and the impact pressure of its bio generic drugs is still great We can see how the high sentiment of investors on Biopharmaceutics has cooled down, the NASDAQ biotechnology index is lucky to keep the record level in mid-2015, and the challenge of policy makers on drug prices and the call to stop drug companies' tax avoidance are a blow to investment confidence There are signs that the 2016 review of drug prices will be a fire extinguisher of investor sentiment, and there is no sign that the authorities have the intention to stop Although the most urgent demand of many large pharmaceutical companies is to supplement their product lines through M & a rather than enhance their own valuation, the valuation eroded by themselves is still not enough for investors to give up participating in the M & a game of large pharmaceutical companies In 2016, we can foresee that large pharmaceutical companies will continue to participate in small-scale M & A of course, unless the valuation declines further, the M & a strategy of these pharmaceutical companies will still focus on the business line level, of course, the smaller pharmaceutical companies are trying to avoid being swallowed That is to say, companies like AstraZeneca, Sanofi and Geely need to supplement their product lines urgently To some extent, there are still many players in the M & a game in 2015 After all, investors have little interest in seeing how many wins pharmaceutical companies have in the next few years, as long as they can be convinced of the outcome Making a lot of money also needs to consider the safety factor It is possible for taxpayers to act with overconfidence or a series of major regulatory risks Taxpayer activism has emerged, but so far their impact has been limited So, biopharmaceutical field is still a good place |In 2016, Novartis and Pfizer, the world's top ten pharmaceutical companies, competed fiercely for the top position of the world's largest pharmaceutical company Since the expiry of Lipitor patent in 2011, Pfizer has been unable to maintain the top position If both companies are absent from the 2016 merger and acquisition game, the result of the top competition is unpredictable However, Pfizer's acquisition of Elgin makes the situation clearer Pfizer Elgin's strong portfolio includes $70.4 billion in prescription drugs and OTC markets This scale is far behind Novartis in 2016 Unless Novartis is interested in other large-scale pharmaceutical mergers and acquisitions, Novartis will take the second place Next year Novartis will benefit from the launch of entresto, a heart failure drug, and strong franchised sales of patented drugs, with gilenya, Tasigna and afnitor being the most popular The gap between Roche and Pfizer and Novartis is still obvious Data source of the world's top ten pharmaceutical companies (US $100 million) in 2016: evaluate Pharma, an international well-known pharmaceutical market forecasting company, whose sales scale refers to the total global sales of prescription drugs and OTC of the above companies Gilead has jumped from a medium-sized biopharmaceutical company to a large pharmaceutical company due to the popularity of new hepatitis C drugs, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain its top 10 position Geely is also looking for acquisitions to further improve its ranking EBV and AstraZeneca are the last two on the list, among which AstraZeneca has not been eliminated due to the expiration of heavy product patents, while EBV's sales continue to expand The company acquired pharmaceuticals and obtained the potential anti-cancer drug imbruvica |In 2016, the top ten best-selling drugs were in fierce competition among the top ten pharmaceutical companies in the world At the same time, the ranking of the top ten best-selling drugs in the world did not change much compared with 2015 Potential varieties such as tenofovir and atezolizumab will take off in the next few years, but they still have a long way to go in order to enter the top 10 of the best-selling drugs, and the entry of competitors of biological agents into the market will be a highlight in 2016 In 2016, the best-selling drug is still Humira, with an estimated sales volume of 15.7 billion US dollars, surpassing the second place of 4.1 billion US dollars The sales volume of 4.1 billion US dollars is close to that of seretide / Adair of GSK However, Alberto's headache is that the world's best-selling drug is about to face the competition of generic drugs Amgen's Sumeria generic drugs have already turned to The FDA has submitted an application for listing, and it's only a matter of time before generic drugs go on the market Most companies are happy to have a product in the top 10 of the best-selling drugs, but Roche alone holds three seats in the top 10, and the company's tumor drugs, rituximab, Avastin and Herceptin, are expected to reach a total sales volume of 20 billion US dollars in 2016 Fortunately, like Alberto, Roche's three cancer drugs are about to enter the same stage of generic competition Look at how fierce the generic competition is If there are no competitors in Europe, it can be ranked higher When it comes to competition, Sanofi has the same situation when it comes Although the sales volume is still in the top 10 of the best-selling drugs, the sales volume has declined from 7.4 billion US dollars in 2015 to 6.9 billion US dollars, because the biogeneric basaglar of Lilly will be in trouble next year, and at the same time, the long-acting insulin tresiba of Novo Nordisk is also coming The world's top selling drugs in 2016 (US $1 billion) data source: international famous drug market prediction company evaluate Pharma | 2016 approved new drug potential list At the end of each year, the new year's heavyweight new drug forecast starts again On the one hand, the panic of new drug patent expiration spreads, on the other hand, the newly approved drugs bring new hope to the industry In the history of new drug approval, 2013 and 2015 are bound to write a heavy stroke, 2016 is coming However, it seems that there are not many surprises in, from the perspective of the progress of new drug approval, there is no special surprise in the field of treatment Data source of 2016 approved new drug potential list (US $100 million): evaluation Pharma, an international well-known drug market prediction company, is expected to be approved in 2016 The most potential new drug is the antiviral drug developed by Gilead In recent years, Gilead has made outstanding achievements in the development of hepatitis C, which makes it easy to ignore its strength in other fields, such as genvoya, a new anti HIV drug approved in 2015 Over the next year, Gilead will continue to demonstrate its R & D capabilities in other areas of hepatitis Tenofovir alafenamide is a good example Compared with many of Gilead's composite drugs, the drug is expected to reach a global sales volume of 3.7 billion US dollars in 2020 while reducing toxicity Roche finally joined the battle for immune tumors The first approved new drug treatment field of its PD-1 antibody may be non-small cell lung cancer or bladder cancer In 2016, the third potential new drug developer ocrelizumab is still Roche, which mainly treats multiple sclerosis and is expected to reach a sales volume of US $2.4 billion in 2020 The field of liver disease is still hot in 2016, and the new drugs that are expected to be approved include grazoprevir / elbasvir, a new hepatitis C treatment drug of MSD It is estimated that the sales volume will reach 2.1 billion US dollars in 2020, while the obeticolic acid of intercept Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd The field of treatment is primary biliary cirrhosis, which belongs to the treatment category, in which nonalcoholic steatohepatitis will be the main indication of the drug for a period of time in the future In addition to Roche, there are two products in this list, including venetoclax, a candidate drug for blood cancer, and elagolix, a drug for endometriosis treatment After the expiration of the company's best-selling drug xiumeile patent, the two drugs are expected to relay |In 2016, the expiration of new drug patent TOP10 is the same as the listing of new drugs As a part of the life cycle of the pharmaceutical industry, the expiration of patent is also a concern In 2016, the expiration of some companies' heavyweight new drug patents will have a profound impact on the company As the best-selling drug in the world, how long Sumeria can last remains controversial The patent for the drug in the United States expires in December 2016, while generic drugs are already in the works Both MSD and Pfizer are developing Semel generic, which has entered the phase III clinical stage Last month, Amgen submitted an application for listing of Semel generic to FDA This means that the barriers to the listing of sumerial's generic drugs in the United States have been completely eliminated, and the CEO of Aberdeen is also looking forward to extending sumerial's patent to 2022 In fact, Sumeria has accounted for 62% of the total sales of Aberdeen Therefore, Aberdeen needs to speed up the construction of product line to make up for the loss of Sumeria patent expiration At present, the industry has reached a consensus that the CEO's expectation is impossible to achieve It is estimated that the peak of sales of Sumeria music will be 18.8 billion US dollars in 2018, and the sales scale will decline to 16.2 billion US dollars by 2020 Payers want to see more generic competition For example, according to the analysis of express scripts, an American drug welfare management company, only 11 bio generic products will save consumers $250 billion from 2019 to 2024 We expect the wind direction to change faster than the pharmaceutical companies and analysts expect Top 1 billion drugs with patent expiration data source: evaluation Pharma, an international well-known drug market forecasting company