Overseas demand bearish impact is greater, Shanghai aluminum short-term may be difficult to have a trend market

In the external market, the rise in crude oil prices drove the commodity market, today's London aluminum is running strongly, LME three-month aluminum Beijing time at 15:01 at 1475 US dollars / ton, up 6 US dollars, or 0.
41%,
from the previous trading day's settlement price.

In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 11590-11630 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 11600-11660 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan; Hua reported 11700-11720 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan; The average domestic spot trading price is between
11600-12000 yuan / ton.
The enthusiasm of shipment is acceptable, the middleman inquires actively but the actual receipt is not much, the downstream purchases on demand, and the overall transaction is flat
.

Market News:

1.
Bosnian aluminium processing company Feal has cut production
by 50% as major buyers from Austria, Germany, Italy and Switzerland shut down factories during the coronavirus outbreak.

2.
In the first quarter, Zhongfu Aluminum's primary aluminum output exceeded the budget by more than 1335 tons, the comprehensive AC power consumption was reduced by 23 kWh/ton aluminum, the process AC power consumption was reduced by 8 kWh/ton aluminum, and the single consumption of aluminum fluoride was reduced by 5 kg/ton aluminum
.

Macro-level, the new crown pneumonia epidemic shows signs of slowing down, the market expects the inflection point of the epidemic is coming, and the macro gradually turns optimistic
.
On the cost side, aluminum enterprises have tightened alumina demand due to the reduction of alumina inventory, coupled with overseas alumina prices at a relatively low level, domestic alumina prices may continue to decline in the short term; On the supply side, in late March, some aluminum plants have entered the maintenance and production reduction cycle, but the production capacity reduction is small; On the demand side, the operating rate of China's downstream aluminum processing enterprises continued to increase, and the increase in inventory accumulation in the aluminum ingot market in the past two weeks has narrowed significantly, but the impact of the overseas epidemic will significantly inhibit aluminum exports
.
In the case of short-term macro improvement and inventory destocking, aluminum prices try to repair upward, but it is expected that the space is limited, and the probability of low volatility is dominant
.