People no longer look to Haidilao. Will the myth of Haidilao be shattered?

Will the myth of Haidilao be shattered?

On March 1, Haidilao (06862.

HK) issued a profit warning stating that its net profit in 2019 was 2.
347 billion yuan, and that it was down 90% year-on-year in 2020, which shocked the market and the industry.

In this announcement, Haidilao attributed this cause to the impact of the epidemic and fluctuations in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB.

On the surface, under the weight of the epidemic, the Chinese catering giant is naturally affected.

But in fact, despite the epidemic, Haidilao’s voice of "going downhill" has been around for a long time.

Prior to this, Haidilao has been deeply involved in public opinion turmoil many times, food safety crisis, price increase turmoil, paid queue jump and recent camera incidents.

Reflected in the stock price, since February 18, Haidilao's stock price has fallen by more than 18%, and the market value has evaporated by nearly 80 billion Hong Kong dollars.

When negative news frequently happens to this catering giant, the moving image of "Haidilao You Can't Learn" that was created in the past is slowly collapsing.

Some people say, "When consumers love you, they will find a good reason for everything.

When they don't love you, they are picking and finding fault.
" Now it seems that Haidilao is going further and further away from consumers.

"Iceberg" floating on the horizontal surface

The damage caused by the epidemic to the catering industry is irreversible.

According to data released by the China Culinary Association, within 7 days of the 2020 Spring Festival holiday, the epidemic has caused a loss of about 500 billion yuan in retail sales in the catering industry.

As a global chain brand, as of the first half of 2020, Haidilao has 935 stores worldwide, of which 868 are located in 164 cities in mainland China.

In the first half of 2020, the domestic epidemic was the most serious, and Haidilao had been closed for 46 days.

In the second half of the year, there were still spreading epidemics in many parts of the country, but it was still not effectively controlled overseas.
Under such an unfavorable external environment, Haidilao's life was naturally difficult.

China Securities Investment has issued a research report saying that the epidemic is estimated to cause a loss of about 5.

04 billion yuan in Haidilao's revenue in 2020, which is 18.
98% of Haidilao's annual revenue in 2019.

Of course, many catering practitioners will think that 2020 is too difficult, and Haidilao can still make a profit, it is not easy.

But this view ignores an important issue-a 90% plunge.

what is this concept? Take Yum China, which is also a large-scale restaurant chain, as an example.
Although the Pizza Hut brand under Yum China has been dragged down by the Pizza Hut brand, its total revenue has fallen by only 6%.
Even if the income caused by asset remeasurement is excluded, the net profit generated by the main business has declined.
It's not even 20%.

In fact, Haidilao's "weird" is more than this.

On December 31, 2019, according to Haidilao's official estimate, there are 3,000 Haidilao stores nationwide.
Immediately the management clearly put forward the "3000 stores" plan.

However, the black swans of the epidemic suddenly struck, which seriously affected the offline economic development, especially for the catering industry "a good lesson".
Many companies were wrapped in tight clothes for the winter, but Haidilao did not.

Even in the first half of 2020, when the epidemic was the most severe, Haidilao still did not stop its expansion, but actively opened new stores.

The financial report shows that in the first half of 2020 alone, Haidilao's newly opened stores reached 173, and the global store network increased to 935.
During this period, Haidilao also told the media that the number of stores throughout the year (2020) is expected to reach 1,000 based on a decoration cycle of about 100 days.

You know, opening a new store means a lot of expenses, rent, labor, materials, etc.
need to be burdened.
For any catering company, it is a lot of pressure, even if you are the leader.

On September 14 last year, Zhang Yong said in a guest program, “This year, I was injured the most, and I was killed nine times.
During the epidemic, the store was closed every day, and the salary had to be paid, so the company would have to pay.
” Zhang The original intention of Yong's passage was to "sell miserable", but in fact it is quite self-inflicted.

From the unreasonable decline in net profit to the cold winter of the entire industry, Haidilao “acted the other way”.
This strange phenomenon also indicates that Haidilao is really experiencing problems.

Haidilao's self-rescue rule

In fact, the crisis of Haidilao began to appear very early.

According to the financial report, Haidilao’s annual operating income in 2019 was 26.
56 billion yuan, an increase of 56.
5% over the same period in 2018.
Although the data is still good, it has begun to show signs of slowing down compared with the 59.
3% growth rate in 2018.

In addition, the rate of overturning that Haidilao was regarded as a standard in the early years also began to loosen in 2019.

The 2019 Haidilao financial report shows that the average restaurant turnover rate is 4.
8 times per day.
From 2015 to 2018, the company controlled the average turnover rate at 5 times per day after four years.
Aside from the special situation of 3.
3 times/day in the first half of 2020, this also means that 2019 has become the first year that Haidilao has experienced a decline in its turnover rate since 2015.

As we all know, the higher the turnover rate, the higher the utilization rate of the table, and the more profitable a single table can contribute.
The decline in Haidilao’s turnover rate will directly affect the store’s revenue and net profit.

How to do? Then increase the price.

In April last year, the prices of dishes at Haidilao's mainland Chinese stores increased by 6%.
Some netizens posted a menu, rice was 7 yuan a bowl, the half serving of blood rose from 16 yuan to 23 yuan, and the half portion of potato chips was 13 yuan.
A meal is 220 yuan+ per capita.

Such an obvious price increase has triggered many consumers' "declarations".
That month, Haidilao had to issue an "Apology Letter", acknowledging that it had raised the prices of some dishes, and pointed out that “the price increase was a wrong decision made by the company’s management and hurt the interests of Haidilao’s customers” and decided to restore the prices of all dishes to 1 Standard before closing on October 26.

On the surface, the price increase crisis is a victory for consumers, but in fact Haidilao still took some hidden price increases, which can be seen from the financial report in the first half of 2020.

In the first half of 2020, Haidilao's mainland stores achieved positive growth in unit prices, reaching 118.
1 yuan in first-tier cities, 107.
4 yuan in second-tier cities, 101.
8 yuan in third-tier cities, and 191.
3 yuan in non-mainland regions.

According to the financial report, in the first half of 2020, Haidilao's per capita consumption was 112.
8 yuan, an increase of 8.
05% from 104.
4 yuan in the same period last year.

Recently, foodies in Beijing, Shanghai and other places discovered that some of the most cost-effective small beef cubes in some stores have been quietly replaced with soy-based "flavor companions".
Although similar in appearance, they are more than twice as cheap.
It once again caused the disappointment and misunderstanding of many netizens.

It is easy to cause damage to word of mouth through the crude way of raising prices.
In order to save itself, Haidilao is trying to open up some other new tracks.

For example, in recent years, Haidilao has created many sub-brands, such as Beijing’s “Eighteen Boil”, Chengdu’s “Lao Pai You Noodles”, Zhengzhou’s “Baifu Private Noodles”, and Xi’an’s “Xinqin Pai Noodles Restaurant”, etc.
.
But these have not become Haidilao's second growth curve after all.

Obviously, Haidilao, trapped inside and outside, is living in "anxiety.
"

Why can't you catch this young man?

Why can't you catch this young man?

Whether it is an increase in the number of stores leading to a decline in net profit, or a low turnover rate to make profits through price increases, the core problem of Haidilao is that the service that "the earth cannot refuse" cannot attract the younger generation of consumers.

More than ten years ago, when the restaurant chain was not yet large-scale, Haidilao's core competitiveness-service, once launched, instantly amazed many consumers and won the market reputation.

To use an inappropriate metaphor for Haidilao's service, "seeing people order dishes.
" Treat different groups of people through different service strategies: if you wear glasses, the waiter will prepare glasses cloth for you; if you wear lipstick, the waiter will send you straws; if you bring children, even offer to help bring the children.

Learning Haidilao was once a masterpiece of the entire catering industry.
But when the service quality of the entire catering industry has been improved, it will return to the essence of catering competition again.
Haidilao, which has ordinary taste and high per capita consumption, naturally feels the huge competitive pressure from its peers.

On December 20, 2020, Haidilao Chairman Zhang Yong said at a symposium, "My suggestion is to stop learning Haidilao.
" One sentence expresses the bitter situation of Haidilao.

More importantly, the consumer psychological needs of young people in this session have also been very different.

Open Douyin, Xiaohongshu and other social media, and every time you read about Haidilao, it is almost all about the "net celebrity eating" shared by major bloggers.
Poke a small hole in the gluten surface and mix the egg and shrimp.
Together, pour the gluten noodles and cook them in a pot, and it will become a delicious new dish.

In addition to the way to eat gluten noodles, there are also homemade hot pot ingredients, beef porridge, and even some netizens teach "how to spend 80 yuan for four people to eat in Haidilao" and so on.

On the surface, the continuous topicality has brought a lot of traffic to Haidilao.
But in fact, this channel of customer acquisition has not translated into Haidilao's income.

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