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After the New Year's Day holiday, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened low and went low, and the 13,500 yuan / ton mark quietly lost
.
China's lower-than-expected manufacturing PMI data and New Year's Day spot accumulation and falling raw material prices combined to put pressure
on aluminum prices.
The LME will liberalize the delivery of aluminum ingots produced by RUSAL after the United States lifts sanctions against RUSAL, which will have an impact
on the LME aluminum price.
Global manufacturing PMI weak macro environment pessimistic
China's official manufacturing PMI for December was 49.
4% vs 50% expected and 50%
prior.
The manufacturing PMI fell below the boom and bust line in December, the first
time since July 2016.
The sub-index shows that the production of manufacturing enterprises has maintained growth but the growth rate has slowed down
.
The business boom is not expected to be high, suppressing new orders and engineering degrees
.
Suppliers are accelerating deliveries, and inventory dematerialization is accelerating
.
Affected by trade frictions, the manufacturing PMI of many Asian countries fell below the 50-year watershed
.
Among developed countries, the US manufacturing PMI fell to a 15-month low, and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI hit a three-year low
.
Although Italy's deficit budget has been relieved of the powder keg risk, the fact that economic growth is weak is difficult to reverse
in the short term.
The external macro point of commodities is pessimistic, which will eventually be transmitted to consumption, which will increase investors' risk aversion and suppress
metal prices.
Joint production cuts without follow-up Supply has not been significantly reduced
It is reported that at the end of the year, the backbone of the aluminum industry held a meeting, and the consulting agency released news that the backbone enterprises made a plan
to reduce production by 800,000 tons on the basis of the current production reduction.
In the week after the meeting, only Guodian Investment Ningxia Energy Company cut production by 50,000 tons, and Shaanxian Hengkang Aluminum planned to reduce production by 120,000 tons, which has now been reduced by 60,000 tons, and there is no other production reduction to follow.
Although production has been reduced by more than 3.
2 million tons since 2018, the resumption of production and new production after the lifting of heating restrictions in March have significantly weakened the effect of the
production cuts.
The current production capacity is only more than 500,000 tons lower than the high of 37.
52 million tons in 2018, which is far from
the scale of production cuts at the end of 2008 and 2015 when prices reversed.
Recently, as the price of alumina fell below the 3,000 yuan / ton mark, the purchase price of anode carbon blocks in 2019 was reduced, which reduced the cash flow cost of electrolytic aluminum production and slowed down the pace of
high-cost production capacity.
There has been no significant decline in production capacity, and the monthly output of electrolytic aluminum has remained at a relatively high level, which is one of the
most critical factors in suppressing aluminum prices.
Downstream holidays are imminent Consumption seasonality is missing
From the visit, the orders of the downstream processing industry in December 2018 are basically the same as in November, but they do not show the characteristics of the previous peak season, but the orders of air conditioning enterprises in some areas for aluminum strip have seasonal volumes, but basically complete the production and delivery
before the Spring Festival.
The Spring Festival has entered a countdown state, the number of orders that downstream processing enterprises can receive is getting smaller and smaller, and downstream processing enterprises have a holiday within two weeks, and consumption is about to enter the stage of seasonal deficiency
.
For the new year's orders, the terminal wait-and-see mood is strong, and the signing of processing long orders is not ideal
.
The continuous supply and the reduction or even lack of consumption will be reflected in the increase
in social inventory.
Last Thursday, aluminum social stocks increased by 06,000 tons month-on-month, and inventories increased by another 34,000 tons after New Year's Day, changing the long-standing destocking trajectory
.
Due to the abundance of spot, in the process of the sharp decline in futures prices, the spot discount is about 40 yuan / ton, and the willingness to follow the decline is obvious
.
Regarding the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum market after the holiday, the Spring Festival holiday is still a window period with unclear policies before the two sessions on March 5, and the downstream start and procurement willingness are insufficient, and the lack of consumption will prolong the accumulation time and increase the number of
accumulation.
Combined with the comparative analysis of the accumulation of 2012-2018 Spring Festival, it is expected that the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum after the Spring Festival in 2019 will be 400,000-500,000 tons
, since the production reduction is mostly concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Due to weaker demand and the impact of weaker-than-expected PMI data, aluminum prices fell
rapidly.
The traditional peak season in March is still more than two months of consumption trough, if there is no stimulus policy or a larger reduction in production in the industry, aluminum prices will continue to test 13,000 yuan / ton to seek support
.