Pharmaceutical industry may usher in a 2-3-year boom period driven by four factors

[market analysis of chinapharma.com] Ge Lan, China EU fund, said, "the pharmaceutical industry may usher in a boom period of 2-3 years, accompanied by considerable configuration value." Ge Lan pointed out that it is mainly affected by four aspects, including the industry is at the end of one year's inventory; at the end of three years' policy; the innovation cycle is gradually started; and the quality of drugs is gradually improved (the pharmaceutical industry may usher in a 2-3-year boom period driven by four factors) the policy and capital aspects remain stable, and the fundamentals of the pharmaceutical industry gradually pick up According to Ge Lan of China Europe Fund, the market style in the second half of the year may switch back and forth between the blue chip white horse and the growth stocks matching the performance valuation, which provides a favorable space for the investment allocation of pharmaceutical funds From the current point of view, the medical industry is at the end of one-year inventory and three-year policy; at the same time, the innovation cycle and drug quality improvement cycle will run through the future development of the industry in the medium and long term "The pharmaceutical industry may usher in a boom period of 2-3 years, with considerable configuration value." Ge Lan pointed out that this is mainly driven by the following four factors: factor one: the industry is at the end of one year's inventory, Ge Lan pointed out that the impact of high base caused by replenishment of inventory in 2016 is gradually weakening With the gradual promotion of "two vote system" and "replacing business tax with value-added tax", and the strict implementation of No 94 document issued by the State Food and Drug Administration for the regulation of commercial circulation, some small and medium-sized enterprises in the commercial circulation have been greatly affected For this reason, some channel providers increased their inventory, which resulted in more enterprise side shipments in the first half of 2016 and the first half of 2016 With the gradual standardization and adjustment of the circulation link for about one year, the current medical industry has returned to a basic and reasonable inventory level, and it is expected that the growth rate of the follow-up industry will continue to pick up Factor 2: at the end of the three-year policy, normally, the period of medical insurance bidding is 2-3 years Under the background of medical insurance and fee control, the centralized purchase of public hospitals in all provinces has a great impact on the price of enterprises At present, major provinces have basically completed this round of bidding, and it is expected that the impact on the overall price will gradually weaken in the next 2-3 years At the same time, the new version of the medical insurance catalog released in February is expected to be debugged by the end of September in each province, and the category B supplementary varieties are expected to be completed by the end of the year Compared with the adjustment of the medical insurance catalogue in 2009, it is estimated that there will be a good growth space of 2-3 years for the new medical products Factor 3: innovation cycle is one of the core driving forces of the pharmaceutical industry, and China's innovative drug varieties are expected to enter the harvest period At present, the investment focus of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises has gradually shifted from the red sea of generic drugs competition to the investment in innovative drugs From the perspective of policy support, the State Food and drug administration has included a large number of innovative drug varieties into the scope of priority review, greatly reducing the approval time Ge Lan believes that in the second half of this year, innovative drugs will be gradually launched "Some leading enterprises with strong R & D capabilities are expected to complete phase III clinical trials in the second half of 2017 In addition, there are leading companies with good phase II clinical data, which have been directly used for production reporting." It is expected that the relevant varieties will enter into the priority review Factor 4: the gradual improvement of drug quality under the background of extensive industry competition in the past, the overall drug quality of domestic enterprises is uneven; and with the gradual implementation of generic drug consistency evaluation, it will have a significant impact on the industry Ge Lan thinks that this is the inevitable trend that the imported varieties gradually return to their true value, and also greatly eases the pressure of medical insurance fund, which also provides the opportunity for the generic enterprises to quickly seize market share Original title: China Europe Fund: the pharmaceutical industry may usher in a boom period of 2-3 years