Pharmaceutical investment should conform to the policy direction, and the industry should focus on several aspects

[pharmaceutical network market analysis] in recent years, the pharmaceutical industry has become the focus of market attention In the long run, with the continuous improvement of people's consumption level, the strengthening of health awareness, the acceleration of aging, and the promotion of a series of pharmaceutical policies, the rigid demand of the pharmaceutical industry is very large However, the industry believes that in the future, pharmaceutical investment should conform to the policy direction, and it is suggested to focus on several aspects First, in the short term, as a part of the big consumer industry, the pharmaceutical industry has relatively stable performance growth and is anti cyclical Combined with the industry's profit characteristics and valuation level, its investment advantage is relatively obvious But in the long run, we need to pay attention to the division of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, and the mainstream of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is gradually moving away from the big consumption plate Secondly, innovative drug industry chain is still the main investment direction in the future due to its scarcity and current policy tolerance Among them, cro / CMO has a higher short-term prosperity, and innovative pharmaceutical enterprises can obtain more long-term value The industry believes that cro / CMO industry enjoys the promotion of two major industry trends: global capacity transfer and the outbreak of domestic innovative drugs In the future, it is expected to maintain a sustained growth of more than five years, which is worth a long-term layout The industry will form a strong situation But the long-term growth potential depends on the internationalization ability of enterprises In terms of innovative drugs, due to the importance of quality and efficiency in new drug research, excellent projects are expected to continue to converge with leading enterprises in the future, which is expected to form a situation in which the strong will remain strong Industry leaders are expected to grow Third, the independent consumption sector needs to see what changes will happen to the industry barriers with domestic characteristics Among them, the vaccine industry is a special case In the past, the pharmaceutical industry invested heavily in the research and development of severe and some chronic diseases, but neglected infectious diseases China's vaccine market is huge, and industry barriers are high, so some products are in short supply for a long time In addition, China's population base is huge, which is expected to reach nearly 1.5 billion by 2030 At the same time, the trend of aging in China is increasingly obvious The aging population is more vulnerable to some infectious diseases, and it will take longer to recover after infection The industry believes that the future of China's large elderly population will provide a new market space for the vaccine industry In general, China's vaccine industry has a good market prospect thanks to the huge population base and the improvement of residents' health awareness Fourthly, the medical device sector can selectively focus on sub industries with low policy warning, such as IVD However, the IVD industry has a certain degree of professionalism and a certain threshold, so leading enterprises are more optimistic; medical services as a whole is the direction of policy benefits, but it is difficult to find the focus of investment It is suggested that the industry should pay attention to the leading private specialized hospitals, while the areas to be avoided are mainly generic drugs, retail pharmacies, and ordinary biological products With the normalization of centralized procurement, the generic pharmaceutical industry may face a reshuffle According to data, by the end of November 2018, there were 4441 manufacturers of APIs and preparations in China It is the world's largest producer and exporter of APIs, as well as the world's largest producer of preparations, with 97% of its products being generic However, there are thousands of generic pharmaceutical enterprises, only a few of which are in the transition stage from imitation to innovation The industry believes that if generic pharmaceutical enterprises want to continue to make money, they should either expand scale, improve quality, control cost, improve supply management level, and win with quality and cost control; or they should increase investment in research and development of new drugs to win with innovation