Pharmaceutical stocks staged a ups and downs of short-term disturbance does not change the medium-term logic

Yesterday, the pharmaceutical and biological sector volume rose, more than 90% of the sector can be traded individual stocks rose, including Shanhe Pharmaceutical Auxiliary, Oxiang Pharmaceuticals, Tagg Pharmaceuticals, Dali Pharmaceuticals, North China Pharmaceuticals, Meikang Bio and many other stocks rose and stopped.
, the analysis pointed out that since June, the market volatility is large, the pharmaceutical and biological sector has also adjusted, but the industry in the medium term to good logic has not changed. At present, the pharmaceutical sector of the sub-industry track is clear, head enterprises are more clear, leading companies strong Hengqiang.Pharma industry growth picks up
According to the Data of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's pharmaceutical industry revenue and profits began to slowly pick up after experiencing a period of high growth in 2007-2011 and a period of low growth in 2012-2016. In the first quarter of 2018, sales revenue of the pharmaceutical industry above the scale was RMB630.8 billion, up 15.8% YoY, and profit was RMB77.4 billion, up 22.5% YoY, up from the same period in 2017.
, on the other hand, this week's disclosure of listed companies officially opened the curtain, the pharmaceutical and biological sector performance growth rate has become the focus of the current market. Judging from the 2017 Annual Report and the first quarter of this year's report, the industry showed that the growth rate of the industry's full-year 2017 results continued to improve, and the growth rate of profit accelerated in the first quarter of 2018. In 2017, the pharmaceutical sector achieved operating income of RMB1061.7 billion, up 16.7% YoY, and net profit of RMB97 billion, up 37.4% YoY, and net profit of RMB79.8 billion, up 31% YoY. On a quarterly perspective, revenue growth in the first, second, third and fourth quarters of 2017 was 20.6%, 21.1%, 23.7% and 5.4% respectively (subject to the fourth quarter of the commercial sector) Negative growth), net profit growth was 19.6%, 43.8% (low base affected by the Chinese medicine sector in the second quarter of 2016), 29.8% and 29.4%, respectively.
the pharmaceutical sector achieved revenue of RMB300.1 billion in the first quarter of 2018, up 22.7% YoY, net profit of RMB26.8 billion, up 39.1% YoY, and net profit of RMB26 billion, up 42.7% YoY.
, Guojin Securities analysts said that after record revenue and profit growth hit a new low in 2015, the first quarter of 2016 showed signs of repair, the third quarter of 2016 began to accelerate the repair continued to this day.Long-term holding industry leader
from the pharmaceutical bio-sector index trend, the recent correction is larger, has basically returned to the previous shock finishing platform, then stand in the medium-term point, how to understand the pharmaceutical bio-sector? How do I configure it?
said there was no significant bubble in A-share pharmaceutical stocks and that there were strategic buying opportunities in the sector after the correction. The overall growth rate of the A-share pharmaceutical sector will remain above 20% per year for the next 3 years, and PE35 is a reasonable valuation for an industry that is counter-cyclical (switching to about 29 times in 2019). The main contradiction at present is not the valuation bubble problem, but the serious valuation differentiation problem. A large number of corporate market expectations have fallen, but in reality risks have been exposed, fundamentals are improving, valuations are at their lowest levels since 2012 and fundamentals are better than ever. There are systemic strategic opportunities for a large number of companies with historically low valuations. At the same time stand in the long-term perspective, still recommend long-term holding the industry leader, share the dividends of the growth of great enterprises.
Guangfa Securities said that for the investment opportunities in the second half of the pharmaceutical industry, continue to focus on the four main lines: the first or innovation, in addition to the focus on the vaccine sector, because the vaccine to the large varieties listed nodes, and the rapid release of vaccines, is the most explosive field in medicine. And vaccines are not limited by health insurance funding, is a mass medical consumer goods species, space is vast.
second main line is the upgrading of medical consumption, which is the most important feature of the entire consumer industry, pharmaceutical upgrading is mainly aimed at non-rigid medical needs, such as medical beauty, changgao, dentistry, ophthalmology and so on.
third main line is the volume of health insurance, due to last year's health care adjustment, this year's health care effect will be higher quarter by quarter, the weight of the variety of health insurance flexibility is very large.Article
Article 4 is the consistency evaluation, and now the provinces began to land consistency evaluation varieties of specific positive policies, the main policies include generic drugs and original research in the same level of bidding, direct network procurement, etc. , it is expected that the consistency evaluation follow-up will also begin to gradually contribute to the performance increment. (China Securities News)