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PP futures also performed well in the quality of the commodity market, hitting a year-high on November 11. In December, a combination of factors, supply and demand tend to balance, PP prices will be high oscillation.
supply will be gradually released
into October, Shenhua Xinjiang annual production capacity of 300,000 tons and Sino-Tian-Hei annual production capacity of 350,000 tons of two sets of PP devices have been put into operation, PP total output increased. However, some devices were converted to PP co-adversity, resulting in an increase in PP wire production that was not as large as expected. In November, PP wire production accounted for 30%, at the annual medium level, PP wire production is expected to be the same as in October.
new plant is scheduled to start production later this year. Changzhou Fude annual production capacity of 200,000 tons and Ningbo Fuji annual production capacity of 400,000 tons of the plant is scheduled to start production in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year. However, due to the sharp rise in methanol prices, according to the author's estimate, the cost of methanol olefins outside East China than the east China PP pull price is about 350 yuan / ton, production losses may affect the normal production of MTO plant in Changzhou. The successful start-up of Ningbo Fuji will bring an increase of 25,000 to 30,000 tons per month to the PP market next year.
analysis of the supply situation, in addition to domestic production, imports can not be ignored. On the one hand, North American producers cleared low-cost shipments at the end of the year, and on the other hand, India was affected by the currency exchange policy, producers increased the number of exports to China, expected from late December to January next year, imports concentrated in Hong Kong, PP supply side under pressure.
downstream demand enters the off-
. PP downstream production into the off-season, plastics, BOPP and injection molding industry started stable, but orders flat, the factory cautiously wait and see, to maintain just need to purchase. Middle traders, on the one hand, affected by the fall in futures prices, traders are mainly shipping, on the other hand, affected by the devaluation of the renminbi, import traders are hesitant to hoard goods.
of recycled materials weakened
This year, environmental protection supervision efforts were strengthened, PP recycled materials significantly reduced, January-September national output and imports decreased by 7% YoY. Among them, the month-on-month decrease in September was 949,000 tons. As the supply of PP recycled materials shrinks, the demand for this area shifts to PP powder and PP wire. Total supply of PP recycled materials is expected to remain low in November, which in turn will boost demand for PP pull.
overall inventory is at a low level
petrochemical inventory is at a low level, although slightly accumulated recently, but will not increase significantly before the end of the year, petrochemical manufacturers take the initiative to reduce prices is not very willing. According to ZhuoTron information November 25 inventory data, PP port inventory is in the upper middle level, a certain increase from the previous period, and traders have been pursuing a low inventory strategy. Overall, PP inventories are slowly rising, but are still low.
In summary, although new installations are in production, PP-pull production is not increasing much, while North America and India are expected to increase their exports to China, most of the supply will come to Hong Kong in January next year, the reduction in recycled materials will boost demand for PP-pull, PP supply and demand are generally in balance in December, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels.