Polypropylene: Weakening external influences, fundamentals dominate the general trend of market changes

On the evening of August 23, China announced that it would impose additional tariffs on US produc.

In general, we believe that the escalation of the trade war will have a short-term drag on domestic polypropyle.

From the perspective of terminal products, downstream plastic product exports account for a large proportion of the overall domestic demand for downstream finished products, while plastic products exported to the United States account for about 36% of the total plastic product expor.

According to statistics, polypropylene products imported from the United States from 2015 to 2019 (January to June) accounted for 87%, 67%, 02%, 13% and 59% of total polypropylene imports, respective.

From the perspective of domestic polypropylene price changes, everyone seems to be slightly sluggish in responding to macro chang.

The reason is that the current accounting for the inspection in September is still too large, the new production capacity is temporarily limited, and the current situation of insufficient supply of standard products is not alleviated significant.

In addition, from the perspective of demand, the demand is still there, but it is basically based on periodic replenishme.

But we also need to pay attention to a few points: one is that the high profit makes the near-end in a high valuation state, which means that the price has a lot of room to fall; the other is that the transaction price of imported polypropylene has dropped to around 980 US dollars / ton, foreign countries The resource import window is already op.