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After the National Day, the spot price of natural rubber and synthetic rubber rose, and natural rubber rose by 500 yuan / ton to 13700 yuan / ton
.
Styrene-butadiene rubber rose sharply by 1,500 yuan / ton to 13,900 yuan / ton, which was lower than the price of natural rubber before the holiday, and is currently slightly higher than that of tianjiao
.
Under the background of abundant global liquidity, the continuous rise in the price of energy commodities has given Shanghai rubber confidence to go long, making the Shanghai rubber 2201 contract show a strong upward trend after the National Day
.
However, in the future, the liquidity of Europe and the United States is expected to tighten, and the financial attributes of Shanghai rubber will weaken, while the commodity attributes will be highlighted
.
In addition, the fundamentals of the rubber market are not good, and it is difficult for the 2201 contract to reverse the decline in the short term
.
From August to September, under the influence of negative factors such as chip shortage and environmental protection inspection in Shandong, rubber repeatedly tested the low point of the year, and September automobile production data showed that the worst moment of chip shortage has passed, and in the case of rising automobile production and replenishing inventory, Tianjiao will become stronger
.
The fourth quarter is also the rising period of tianjiao production and the peak season of the automotive industry, and the contradiction formed by supply and demand will promote market changes
.
At the end of November, there will be a succession of rubber tapping, the supply of tianjiao will see an inflection point after December, and this year due to the shortage of chips, automobile consumer demand has been suppressed, the automobile demand season is expected to be delayed, and there may be a phased supply of tianjiao at some time in the future
.
The big C wave correction since February has ended; In the near future, it will be pulled up with a W bottom structure, and it will start with a big 3 wave rise in the later stage
.
In terms of time, driven by the peak procurement season at the end of the year, it is expected to form a round of seasonal increases until the suspension of rubber
tapping in February.
In the fourth quarter, the rubber market was still in the "typhoon season", superimposed on the end of the year and spring automobile consumption into the peak season
.
At the same time, the global epidemic is under orderly control and decline, and the world economy is expected to fully recover
.