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Last week, raw calcium carbide was still at a high level, and PVC cost support still existed; PVC manufacturers received poor orders at high prices, and the overall pre-sale volume declined; Downstream demand is general, cautious just need to purchase; Some warehouses in East China have stopped installation, the market has not arrived much, and social inventory is still expected
to be dematerialized.
On the whole, last week's PVC spot fundamentals did not change much, spot followed the trend of futures to adjust, the market macro sentiment was not good, the futures shock downward range, participants had a certain amount of panic, traders actively shipped, spot prices followed the downward
.
The PVC market is expected to remain weak
in the short term.
At the macro level, the NDRC organized a symposium to indicate that it will make full use of the necessary means stipulated in the Price Law to intervene in coal prices, ensure a secure and stable supply of energy, and promote a rational return to prices
.
Transmitted by the price of thermal coal, coupled with the recent increase in electricity bills, electricity expectations have recovered, the PVC supply margin has slowly become looser, and under the double bearish superposition, the bulls' panic exit sentiment has intensified, and prices have been under short-term pressure
.
From a fundamental point of view, there is no major change at present, the dual-control policy continues, the possibility of calcium carbide supply quickly recovering to a high level is low, and there are more PVC companies currently overhauling and parking, inventory dematerialization, marginal supply pressure is not strong, after the price crash, downstream profits have picked up, and the start expectation has rebounded, but the price decline process, short-term wait-and-see sentiment increased, temporarily inhibiting downstream buying impulses
.
Considering that the current weak pattern of supply and demand is maintained, and the release of sentiment under the policy guidance has significantly promoted the market, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the trend of coal prices, waiting for the release of panic, it is expected that as the price falls further, the influence of supply and demand will be improved, the relative valuation space will increase, and the price is expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize
.
