Pork prices are almost cut in the industry: after August, the price of pigs will be fast...

On June 9th, May price data was announced.
The National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.
3% year-on-year, which was slightly lower than market expectations.
The decline in pork prices was the main reason
.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the 22nd week of 2021 (from May 31 to June 4, 2021), the weekly average of the total ex-factory price index of lean white pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) is 22.
20 yuan per kilogram.
The month-on-month decrease was 3.
8% and the year-on-year decrease was 45.
7%
.

Industry insiders said that at present, the price of live pigs is close to the break-even line of live pigs, and there is limited room for subsequent pig prices to fall.

From "too expensive" to "okay"

On June 10, a reporter from China Securities News walked into an urban and rural warehouse supermarket in Haidian District, Beijing.
It was the best time of the day for purchasing, and the entire supermarket was bustling
.

"Would you like to buy pork? The tail bones of black pigs cost 25.
4 yuan a catty
.

" The salesperson actively solicited business, "before 46.

An aunt who was selecting pig front legs told reporters: "The price of pork has indeed dropped.
Like this pig front leg, it used to cost more than 30 yuan per catty.
Now it is 15.
98 yuan, which is half down.
It's okay
.

"

The reporter asked whether there were more people buying pork after the price of pork was cut.
A salesperson said: “It hasn’t increased either, mainly because it’s summer, and some people don’t want to eat meat
.

”

According to data from Souzhu.
com, on June 10, the national average price of lean pigs for slaughter was 15.
18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.
33 yuan per kg from the previous day
.

According to the monitoring data of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, since the ex-factory price index of lean white striped pigs reached a high of 50.

Pork prices fell "mortal"

Behind the decline in pork is the change in the relationship between supply and demand
.

The reporter learned that in 2020, the domestic market pork price is in short supply, and the pork price continues to rise.
By the beginning of this year, China's live pig price gradually "capped" and showed a downward trend
.

At that time, production and breeding enterprises generally held a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, but the price of live pigs continued to fall

In recent years, the state has gradually liberalized and encouraged the development of the pig industry.
Domestic pig production capacity has continued to recover, and the number of pigs on hand has been rising
.

Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that as of April this year, the number of reproductive sows increased by 1.

Prices won't keep falling

The Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, and the demand for fresh meat usually increases before the festival, and the price of pork may rise slightly
.

However, according to Feng Yonghui, an analyst at Sozhu.

Pork prices will not keep falling
.

"The price of live pigs is close to the break-even line of live pigs, and has not reached a state of loose supply

Wei Xin, a researcher at the Futures Agricultural Products Division of China Securities, predicts that after July and August, this rapid decline in pig prices may end
.
On the one hand, seasonal factors affect the demand for pork, and winter demand will increase; on the other hand, falling pig prices, local epidemics, etc.
may cause small and medium-sized retail investors to not make up for slaughter, which may cause a relative decline in the number of fat pigs for slaughter in the third quarter.
There is room for price rebound
.

For consumers, the low pork price is certainly worthy of joy, but the low pork price has a negative impact on the upstream industrial chain and may cause new changes in the price of pigs
.
The current price of pork is falling, production costs are rising, and the interests of farmers are harmed.
They tend to reduce the stock volume, which will eventually change the balance of supply and demand, promote the stabilization of pork prices and rise, and enter a new round of "pig cycle"
.
In this way, stories of high prices hurting the people and low prices hurting farmers have been repeated
.

In response to this, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Work Plan to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices in the Pork Market
.
" The person in charge of the relevant department stated that the "Preplan" gives full play to the important role of the government's pork reserve adjustment as a key starting point, and insists on both the "up" and "down" of the prices of live pigs and pork
.
When the price is too high, reserves will be put in to protect the consumption needs of residents, and the price will be reduced to a reasonable range to avoid excessive expansion of live pig production; when the price is too low, the purchase and storage will be activated to support the market, and the "reassurance" for farmers , To avoid excessive elimination of live pig production capacity
.