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Approaching the Spring Festival, pork prices are cheaper
.
When a reporter from China Business Daily visited the Beijing market recently, he found that the price of a pound of lean meat was less than 20 yuan, and the price of pork belly and pork crest was about
20 yuan per catty.
The reporter interviewed and learned that at the end of the year, listed pig enterprises are increasing the supply of pigs, market demand continues to be sluggish, around the Spring Festival, consumers may be expected to eat "cabbage price" pork
.
Pork prices "cut in half"
Approaching the Spring Festival, pork merchants in major farmers' markets are particularly busy
.
In a farmer's market in the East Third Ring Road in Beijing's Chaoyang District, a merchant told a China Business Daily reporter that pork belly is sold for 22 yuan / jin, special price pork belly is sold for 19.
8 yuan / jin, and the price of hind leg meat and minced meat is less than 20 yuan / jin
.
A month ago, the cheapest pork could also be sold for 27 yuan / catty
.
Approaching the Spring Festival, pork prices have been "cut in half"
.
Pork prices in supermarkets have also fallen
.
In the Jiajiayue Supermarket in Chaoyang District, Beijing, the reporter saw that for a week, the price of hind leg meat was below
20 yuan / jin.
"These pork are specials
.
" The staff of Jiajiayue Supermarket said frankly, "The price of normal pork products is 20 yuan / jin - 25 yuan / jin, which is much
cheaper than the previous pork price.
" ”
Data monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that from December 26, 2022 to January 1, 2023, the average purchase price of pigs in designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size in China was 18.
92 yuan/kg, down 2.
1% from the previous month; The average ex-factory price of white stripe meat was 25.
18 yuan/kg, down 1.
9%
from the previous month.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that China's pork production in 2022 increased by 5.
9%
compared with 2021.
Market sentiment had an impact on the pace of pig slaughter in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, and market supply showed a significant backward position
.
Declining consumption and rising pig supply squeezed prices and profits, causing pig prices to "plunge" at the end of the year
.
Since November 2022, the price of live pigs has fallen from 28 yuan/kg to 17 yuan/kg, sometimes by 1-2 yuan/kg
per day.
"Mainly because of sluggish
consumer demand.
After the liberalization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, catering consumption did not rise but fell, the north and south were affected successively, household consumption and processing consumption decreased sharply, and the short-term slaughter volume and pig external transfer volume in various places decreased
significantly.
Zhu Zengyong said
.
The supply of live pigs continues to increase
It is worth noting that listed pig companies are still increasing the supply of live pigs
.
The reporter found that in November 2022, listed pig enterprises have faced a situation
of "volume increase and price reduction".
In November, the average sales price of listed pig enterprises was between 22.
3 yuan and 24 yuan per kilogram, down 9%-13% from October, and the profits of most listed pig enterprises "shrunk"
.
Approaching the Spring Festival, listed pig enterprises are still accelerating their slaughter
.
Makihara said that it expects the company's sales rhythm before the Spring Festival to increase, and recently adjusted the expected pig output range in 2022 to 61 million to 62 million
.
New Hope will continue to expand in the
future.
New Hope said: "In the past, 70% to 80% of our pigs were self-raised, in addition to self-building, we will also rent some pig farms built according to our specifications, which are essentially self-raised, and the lease is leased and self-raised fattening farms and sow farms
.
" After that, we will develop farmers with 3,000 head and less than 5,000 head, and use the stocking model
.
”
An agricultural researcher who is investigating listed pig enterprises told China Business Daily that the number of pigs produced by domestic large-scale breeding enterprises continues to increase, the supply of pigs on the market is sufficient, and practitioners are generally worried
about the trend of pig prices.
The end-market acceptance capacity for high-priced pork is insufficient, and slaughtering enterprises have limited
orders.
At present, hog prices continue to fall and have fallen below the cost line
.
The above-mentioned agricultural researcher said frankly that at present, the group purchasing piglets for expansion is mainly group pig farms, the current demand for slaughtering enterprises is not good, pig prices continue to fall, the future market may face the embarrassing situation
of price and no market.
Is there a drama with "cabbage price" pork
Will pork prices fall during the Spring Festival? Some insiders told reporters frankly that some large-scale pig enterprises increase the supply to the slaughtering end, low-priced white stripe pork continues to impact the market, and other pig enterprises will face the risk
of losing customers if they do not reduce prices.
If the pork purchased at low prices at the slaughterhouse can enter the market around the Spring Festival, the price of pork in the market may continue to fall
.
Zhu Zengyong believes that at present, pork prices still have some room to
fall.
It is expected that in the first half of this year, especially after the second quarter, national consumption will gradually recover, and pork prices will also return to a relatively suitable position
.
It is recommended that farmers maintain a reasonable rhythm of slaughtering, do not blindly bet on the market after the Spring Festival, and avoid speculation for secondary fattening
.
Commodity analyst agency Zhuochuang Information agricultural products analysts believe that pig prices in January this year may first rise and then fall and then rise and then fall, with a monthly average value of 18.
24 yuan / kg
.
In February
, the pig market may be in a weak situation of supply and demand.
The pace of pig shipments will slowly recover in March, but the supply of live pigs will gradually increase, and pig prices may still be running at a low level, and there may be
a possibility of improvement by the end of the month.
Zhuochuang Information expects that the average trading price of pigs (foreign three yuan) in February 2023 may be 16.
45 yuan/kg, and 15.
72 yuan/kg
in March.
;
;Approaching the Spring Festival, pork prices are cheaper
.
When a reporter from China Business Daily visited the Beijing market recently, he found that the price of a pound of lean meat was less than 20 yuan, and the price of pork belly and pork crest was about
20 yuan per catty.
The reporter interviewed and learned that at the end of the year, listed pig enterprises are increasing the supply of pigs, market demand continues to be sluggish, around the Spring Festival, consumers may be expected to eat "cabbage price" pork
.
Pork prices "cut in half"
Pork prices "cut in half"Approaching the Spring Festival, pork merchants in major farmers' markets are particularly busy
.
In a farmer's market in the East Third Ring Road in Beijing's Chaoyang District, a merchant told a China Business Daily reporter that pork belly is sold for 22 yuan / jin, special price pork belly is sold for 19.
8 yuan / jin, and the price of hind leg meat and minced meat is less than 20 yuan / jin
.
A month ago, the cheapest pork could also be sold for 27 yuan / catty
.
Approaching the Spring Festival, pork prices have been "cut in half"
.
Pork prices in supermarkets have also fallen
.
In the Jiajiayue Supermarket in Chaoyang District, Beijing, the reporter saw that for a week, the price of hind leg meat was below
20 yuan / jin.
"These pork are specials
.
" The staff of Jiajiayue Supermarket said frankly, "The price of normal pork products is 20 yuan / jin - 25 yuan / jin, which is much
cheaper than the previous pork price.
" ”
Data monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that from December 26, 2022 to January 1, 2023, the average purchase price of pigs in designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size in China was 18.
92 yuan/kg, down 2.
1% from the previous month; The average ex-factory price of white stripe meat was 25.
18 yuan/kg, down 1.
9%
from the previous month.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that China's pork production in 2022 increased by 5.
9%
compared with 2021.
Market sentiment had an impact on the pace of pig slaughter in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, and market supply showed a significant backward position
.
Declining consumption and rising pig supply squeezed prices and profits, causing pig prices to "plunge" at the end of the year
.
Since November 2022, the price of live pigs has fallen from 28 yuan/kg to 17 yuan/kg, sometimes by 1-2 yuan/kg
per day.
"Mainly because of sluggish
consumer demand.
After the liberalization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, catering consumption did not rise but fell, the north and south were affected successively, household consumption and processing consumption decreased sharply, and the short-term slaughter volume and pig external transfer volume in various places decreased
significantly.
Zhu Zengyong said
.
The supply of live pigs continues to increase
The supply of live pigs continues to increaseIt is worth noting that listed pig companies are still increasing the supply of live pigs
.
The reporter found that in November 2022, listed pig enterprises have faced a situation
of "volume increase and price reduction".
In November, the average sales price of listed pig enterprises was between 22.
3 yuan and 24 yuan per kilogram, down 9%-13% from October, and the profits of most listed pig enterprises "shrunk"
.
Approaching the Spring Festival, listed pig enterprises are still accelerating their slaughter
.
Makihara said that it expects the company's sales rhythm before the Spring Festival to increase, and recently adjusted the expected pig output range in 2022 to 61 million to 62 million
.
New Hope will continue to expand in the
future.
New Hope said: "In the past, 70% to 80% of our pigs were self-raised, in addition to self-building, we will also rent some pig farms built according to our specifications, which are essentially self-raised, and the lease is leased and self-raised fattening farms and sow farms
.
" After that, we will develop farmers with 3,000 head and less than 5,000 head, and use the stocking model
.
”
An agricultural researcher who is investigating listed pig enterprises told China Business Daily that the number of pigs produced by domestic large-scale breeding enterprises continues to increase, the supply of pigs on the market is sufficient, and practitioners are generally worried
about the trend of pig prices.
The end-market acceptance capacity for high-priced pork is insufficient, and slaughtering enterprises have limited
orders.
At present, hog prices continue to fall and have fallen below the cost line
.
The above-mentioned agricultural researcher said frankly that at present, the group purchasing piglets for expansion is mainly group pig farms, the current demand for slaughtering enterprises is not good, pig prices continue to fall, the future market may face the embarrassing situation
of price and no market.
Is there a drama with "cabbage price" pork
Is there a drama with "cabbage price" porkWill pork prices fall during the Spring Festival? Some insiders told reporters frankly that some large-scale pig enterprises increase the supply to the slaughtering end, low-priced white stripe pork continues to impact the market, and other pig enterprises will face the risk
of losing customers if they do not reduce prices.
If the pork purchased at low prices at the slaughterhouse can enter the market around the Spring Festival, the price of pork in the market may continue to fall
.
Zhu Zengyong believes that at present, pork prices still have some room to
fall.
It is expected that in the first half of this year, especially after the second quarter, national consumption will gradually recover, and pork prices will also return to a relatively suitable position
.
It is recommended that farmers maintain a reasonable rhythm of slaughtering, do not blindly bet on the market after the Spring Festival, and avoid speculation for secondary fattening
.
Commodity analyst agency Zhuochuang Information agricultural products analysts believe that pig prices in January this year may first rise and then fall and then rise and then fall, with a monthly average value of 18.
24 yuan / kg
.
In February
, the pig market may be in a weak situation of supply and demand.
The pace of pig shipments will slowly recover in March, but the supply of live pigs will gradually increase, and pig prices may still be running at a low level, and there may be
a possibility of improvement by the end of the month.
Zhuochuang Information expects that the average trading price of pigs (foreign three yuan) in February 2023 may be 16.
45 yuan/kg, and 15.
72 yuan/kg
in March.
