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The recent decline in methanol futures prices is mainly due to two suppressions: on the one hand, the international oil price peaked and fell at the stage, on the other hand, the number of port imports increased significantly
.
Analysts believe that the recent continuous rainfall in the mainland is not conducive to the traditional downstream production and sales of methanol; and the port arrivals have not decreased, and the downstream delivery is mainly on demand.
The arrivals at the port are expected to increase in the middle and late ten days.
The short-term methanol market is likely to fall but hard to rise.
.
??????? Methanol futures prices "down the stairs" ??????? Methanol futures prices fell slightly on Wednesday, the main 1609 contract fell 0.
32% from the previous trading day to 1843 yuan / ton, lighten up 1996 lots, and traded 424502 lots
.
In terms of spot, the East China Taicang methanol spot offer price was around RMB 1850-1860 per ton, futures rose slightly, and port prices followed
.
??????? On the cost side, the international crude oil prices peaked and declined somewhat, causing a negative impact on the methanol market
.
According to data released by US Oil Service Baker Hughes, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased for four consecutive weeks in the week of July 22.
The number of drilling rigs in the week was 371, an increase of 41 from the end of June
.
The crude oil market began to weaken again due to concerns about the peak refinery operating rate and the rapid recovery in the number of drilling rigs
.
"After the international oil price rebounded to around US$50, it triggered a surge in the number of drilling platforms.
Although US crude oil inventories have continued to decline recently, they still remain at a high level of 500 million barrels.
Oil-producing countries in the Middle East are likely to reduce production.
Therefore, the crude oil market returned to a weak supply and demand situation after being under pressure near US$50, and it is expected to pull back to the first line of US$35-40
.
” said Zhang Linyu, an analyst at Galaxy Futures
.
Since July, the overall domestic methanol market has shown a downward trend, the price gap between the mainland and the port has re-expanded, and the regional differentiation pattern has eased
.
According to Zhang Linyu, due to the sluggish consumption of gasoline and diesel, the profitability of tanker transportation in the mainland market has declined.
In addition, the traditional downstream has entered the off-season, and the operating rate has declined to varying degrees
.
The port area has been suppressed by the substantial increase in imports since May, and prices have not been able to rise significantly.
.
Even when the prices of downstream products, plastics and polypropylene, have risen sharply, methanol prices are still tepid
.
??????? Ports are facing storage risks??????? "In July, there was an increase in the maintenance of installations in the mainland market, especially in southern Shandong, which caused prices in southern Shandong to be relatively strong for a time, triggering Guanzhong, Shanxi, and Henan.
Arbitrage trade with the southern Shandong region
.
" Zhang Linyu said
.
??????? It is reported that Shandong's methanol-to-propylene plant is currently shut down, and some enterprise plants are planned to be transformed into methanol-based clean energy; some plants are transformed into naphtha aromatization routes; most of the plants are currently idle
.
??????? In terms of imports, according to Galaxy Futures data, in July, due to the overall decline in the domestic market, while the international devices were basically stable, the selling price was higher, the buy counter-offer was lower, and the fixed price transaction was higher.
The transaction price is at 220-230 US dollars/ton, and the market formula price transaction is maintained at an increase of 1.
8%-2.
5%
.
In terms of inventory, as of July 21, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 964,300 tons, a significant increase of 185,000 tons from the same period last month, an increase of 23.
7%
.
Looking forward to the future, Ruida Futures pointed out that olefins in the northwestern region began to source olefins, and downstream areas such as Shandong concentrated on replenishment.
The inventory pressure of methanol companies was relieved and social inventories declined
.
However, the recent continuous rainfall in the mainland is not conducive to the traditional downstream production and sales of methanol; and the port arrivals have not decreased, and the downstream goods are mainly received on demand.
The arrivals to the port are expected to increase in the middle and late ten days.
The short-term methanol market is likely to fall and hardly rise
.
??????? Zhang Linyu agrees
.
She believes that the macro-level tone is stable and neutral, and the strength of the external US dollar and the weakness of crude oil will also restrain domestic commodity prices
.
In terms of supply and demand, the port faces the risk of continued storage in August.
Therefore, the methanol spot market is expected to remain weak
.
.
Analysts believe that the recent continuous rainfall in the mainland is not conducive to the traditional downstream production and sales of methanol; and the port arrivals have not decreased, and the downstream delivery is mainly on demand.
The arrivals at the port are expected to increase in the middle and late ten days.
The short-term methanol market is likely to fall but hard to rise.
.
??????? Methanol futures prices "down the stairs" ??????? Methanol futures prices fell slightly on Wednesday, the main 1609 contract fell 0.
32% from the previous trading day to 1843 yuan / ton, lighten up 1996 lots, and traded 424502 lots
.
In terms of spot, the East China Taicang methanol spot offer price was around RMB 1850-1860 per ton, futures rose slightly, and port prices followed
.
??????? On the cost side, the international crude oil prices peaked and declined somewhat, causing a negative impact on the methanol market
.
According to data released by US Oil Service Baker Hughes, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased for four consecutive weeks in the week of July 22.
The number of drilling rigs in the week was 371, an increase of 41 from the end of June
.
The crude oil market began to weaken again due to concerns about the peak refinery operating rate and the rapid recovery in the number of drilling rigs
.
"After the international oil price rebounded to around US$50, it triggered a surge in the number of drilling platforms.
Although US crude oil inventories have continued to decline recently, they still remain at a high level of 500 million barrels.
Oil-producing countries in the Middle East are likely to reduce production.
Therefore, the crude oil market returned to a weak supply and demand situation after being under pressure near US$50, and it is expected to pull back to the first line of US$35-40
.
” said Zhang Linyu, an analyst at Galaxy Futures
.
Since July, the overall domestic methanol market has shown a downward trend, the price gap between the mainland and the port has re-expanded, and the regional differentiation pattern has eased
.
According to Zhang Linyu, due to the sluggish consumption of gasoline and diesel, the profitability of tanker transportation in the mainland market has declined.
In addition, the traditional downstream has entered the off-season, and the operating rate has declined to varying degrees
.
The port area has been suppressed by the substantial increase in imports since May, and prices have not been able to rise significantly.
.
Even when the prices of downstream products, plastics and polypropylene, have risen sharply, methanol prices are still tepid
.
??????? Ports are facing storage risks??????? "In July, there was an increase in the maintenance of installations in the mainland market, especially in southern Shandong, which caused prices in southern Shandong to be relatively strong for a time, triggering Guanzhong, Shanxi, and Henan.
Arbitrage trade with the southern Shandong region
.
" Zhang Linyu said
.
??????? It is reported that Shandong's methanol-to-propylene plant is currently shut down, and some enterprise plants are planned to be transformed into methanol-based clean energy; some plants are transformed into naphtha aromatization routes; most of the plants are currently idle
.
??????? In terms of imports, according to Galaxy Futures data, in July, due to the overall decline in the domestic market, while the international devices were basically stable, the selling price was higher, the buy counter-offer was lower, and the fixed price transaction was higher.
The transaction price is at 220-230 US dollars/ton, and the market formula price transaction is maintained at an increase of 1.
8%-2.
5%
.
In terms of inventory, as of July 21, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 964,300 tons, a significant increase of 185,000 tons from the same period last month, an increase of 23.
7%
.
Looking forward to the future, Ruida Futures pointed out that olefins in the northwestern region began to source olefins, and downstream areas such as Shandong concentrated on replenishment.
The inventory pressure of methanol companies was relieved and social inventories declined
.
However, the recent continuous rainfall in the mainland is not conducive to the traditional downstream production and sales of methanol; and the port arrivals have not decreased, and the downstream goods are mainly received on demand.
The arrivals to the port are expected to increase in the middle and late ten days.
The short-term methanol market is likely to fall and hardly rise
.
??????? Zhang Linyu agrees
.
She believes that the macro-level tone is stable and neutral, and the strength of the external US dollar and the weakness of crude oil will also restrain domestic commodity prices
.
In terms of supply and demand, the port faces the risk of continued storage in August.
Therefore, the methanol spot market is expected to remain weak
.
