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Last week's Shanghai copper performance first fell and then rose
.
At the beginning of the week, due to the domestic Caixin manufacturing PMI in November exceeded expectations, the market sentiment was optimistic, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper at the beginning of the week remained stable at a high of 47,300 yuan / ton, and then due to the escalation of the global trade situation, the market risk aversion heated up again, and the main force of Shanghai copper continuously fell below the support level of multiple moving averages from a high of 47,300 yuan / ton to test the lowest point in the week of 46,910 yuan / ton, and closed at the doji line
。 Subsequently, due to the good performance of the domestic Caixin service industry PMI data and the 300 billion MLF operation again carried out by the domestic central bank over the weekend, once again reflecting the prudent attitude of domestic monetary policy in the counter-cyclical adjustment, boosting the low rebound of Shanghai copper and returning to above 47300 yuan / ton, regaining a number of recent moving averages, technical support for Shanghai copper
.
In terms of external disk, Lun copper prospected low and rebounded
.
London copper fell below the 40-day moving average and 60-day moving average support from the high of 5908.
5 at the beginning of the week, and tested the lowest point of the week at $5806/ton
.
Near the weekend, the Ministry of Commerce made a positive statement on the Sino-US consultations, trade optimism rekindled, at the same time the US ADP data was far less than expected, the US index fell to a low level in nearly a month, coupled with the market's increased expectations for OPEC production cuts, London copper was boosted by multiple favorable factors to return to the low level, back above the $5900 / ton mark, a weekly increase of 0.
7%.
At the beginning of the week, due to the global trade situation fermenting again, the United States once again launched tariff suppression on the European Union, France, etc.
, Sino-US trade also reappeared due to concerns about Hong Kong-related Xinjiang-related bills, coupled with the poor performance of economic data such as the US manufacturing industry, the national strike in France caused interference with the European economy and other factors, the market was once again worried
about macroeconomic performance.
From a fundamental point of view, refined copper social inventories continued the downward trend last week, the trend is in line with seasonal rules, the LME also continued to destock, and the low level of global explicit stocks supported copper prices
.
At the same time, copper concentrate prices remain high, and the riots in Chile still have marginal disturbances to the supply of copper concentrate in the short term
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper soared as expected, and many orders continued to hold in the early stage, breaking through the first target of 47800 and approaching the 48000 line
.
In the environment of continuous loss of imported copper, the circulation of imported copper remains tight, especially flat water copper is highly favored, traders are willing to receive goods, coupled with the copper price at the beginning of the week fell below the 47,000 integer mark to attract downstream active replenishment, buying interest promotion, holders took the opportunity to raise the quotation, from the beginning of the week premium 90-liter 120 yuan / ton rose day by day to 170-liter 190 yuan / ton
.
Pay attention to the above 48200 line heavy pressure rebound market will adjust
here.
