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    Home > Chemicals Industry > China Chemical > Potash fertilizer: the international market pulls the largest increase in fertilizers

    Potash fertilizer: the international market pulls the largest increase in fertilizers

    • Last Update: 2022-01-24
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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      In 2021, driven by the international market, the price of domestic potash fertilizer will increase significantly, the largest increase among all fertilizer types
    .
    According to the statistics of Chemical Industry Online, at the beginning of 2021, the domestic potash fertilizer price was around 2,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and by the end of the year, it had risen to around 3,810 yuan, an increase of 90.
    5%, ranking third in the increase list

    .

    Market price trend of potassium chloride in 2021 (unit: yuan/ton)

    Market price trend of potassium chloride in 2021 (unit: yuan/ton)

      The largest increase in all kinds of fertilizers

    The largest increase in various fertilizers The largest increase in various fertilizers

      Monitoring data from the China Agricultural Materials Circulation Association shows that at the beginning of 2021, the wholesale price index of potassium chloride was 1945.
    08, and it rose to 3571.
    02 in late December, an increase of 83.
    6%, the largest increase among all fertilizers during the year

    .
    Especially in June, some market prices rose by as much as 1,000 yuan, creating a new history

    .

      Wang Wenkang, manager of Guangxi Luming Agricultural Materials Co.
    , Ltd.
    , said that the surge in domestic potash fertilizer prices in 2021 is mainly driven by the surge in the international market

    .
    About half of China's potash fertilizers are imported, and the domestic price is greatly affected by the international market

    .
    At the beginning of 2021, the international price of potassium chloride was 190-240 US dollars, and by the end of December it had reached 490-800 US dollars

    .

      "If it hadn't started in October, the state reserve potash fertilizer with a price of only 3,000 yuan was put on the market through auctions and stabilized the price, then the price of potash fertilizer in 2021 would have reached a new level
    .
    " Wang Wenkang said

    .

      Another reason for the soaring price of potash fertilizer is the increasing contradiction between supply and demand
    .
    According to statistics, in December 2021, the national potash fertilizer output was 668,600 tons, a decrease of 9.
    65% from the previous month, a decrease of 86,100 tons from the same period last year, and a decrease of 11.
    88% from the same period last year

    .
    In terms of imports, the total import volume of potassium chloride in China from January to November 2021 was 7.
    276 million tons, down 10.
    18% from the same period of the previous year

    .
    Especially in the second half of the year, the monthly import volume of potassium chloride was lower than that of the previous year, among which the import volume from July to September fell the most obviously

    .

      The market demand is relatively stable, and the reduction in supply has exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, which has raised the price of potash fertilizer
    .

      Prices will remain high

     Prices will remain high Prices will remain high

      "The self-sufficiency rate of potash fertilizer has barely reached 50%, and potassium chloride still relies on imports.
    At present, most of the international prices have risen to 600-800 US dollars.
    In addition, the price of food is acceptable, and the prices of raw material nitrogen and phosphorus are still relatively high.
    The
    price will not be too low

    ," said Du Shuangjiang, a potash analyst at China Fertilizer Network
    .

      At the end of 2021, the carryover inventory of potassium chloride has decreased significantly, and social inventory is unlikely to be much due to poor market conditions; domestic potassium production is decreasing, and it is said that the production will continue to be reduced in 2022; the amount of goods arriving in the bonded area is not much, and the risk of border trade epidemic is again.
    Larger, the supply of imported goods is under pressure

    .
    In addition, the repeated epidemics are still serious.
    On the one hand, the importance of food security continues to be overestimated.
    On the other hand, the monetary easing policies of various countries may continue, and the prices of imported products such as potassium chloride may be more difficult to control

    .

      At the same time, Du Shuangjiang pointed out that the high price of potash fertilizer has encountered bottlenecks in the international and domestic markets, which may lead to weakening of demand
    .
    In addition, the expansion of international potassium chloride production capacity has accelerated, and the pattern of oversupply has not changed; domestic potassium sulfate still has plans to continue to expand production, and the export is uncertain, which will have a certain negative impact on the potash fertilizer market

    .

      Need to pay attention to potash contracts

     Need to pay attention to potash contracts Need to pay attention to potash contracts

      "The large contract price signed every year has a great impact on the domestic potash fertilizer market, and the market outlook should pay attention to the signing of the potash fertilizer contract
    .
    " Du Shuangjiang said that the current Indian large contract CIF price is 445 US dollars, while the Southeast Asia standard potash spot CIF price has risen to 600 US dollars Left and right and there are still signs of continued upward trend, the spot CIF price of large-grained potassium in Brazil has reached as high as about 800 US dollars

    .
    The large contract price in India is the third highest in history, and the spot CIF price in Southeast Asia, Brazil and other places has been the second highest in history, second only to 2008-2009

    .
    At present, the sales of international suppliers are good, and the supply is tight; Belarusian potash fertilizer is facing sanctions from Europe and the United States, and the later supply is a big problem.
    There is no effective solution for the time being.
    Therefore, there are many market participants who continue to be bullish on international potash fertilizer

    .
    "China's potassium chloride import contract should be signed as soon as possible

    .
    " Du Shuangjiang said

    .

      Qi Zhaoying, a senior potash fertilizer expert, said that he has been staring at big contracts recently, but there is still no news of big contracts
    .
    In this context, the industry's views on the market outlook are also very different

    .
    However, one thing has been basically determined, that is, it is unlikely that the short-term potash fertilizer will fall sharply

    .

      It is worth noting that Qinghai Salt Lake recently raised the price of potassium chloride in January 2022 by 300 yuan, and the latest arrival price of the benchmark product 60% crystalline potassium chloride reached 3,490 yuan
    .

      Du Shuangjiang predicts that the annual price fluctuation range of potash fertilizer in 2022 will be narrower than that in 2021, but it will still be much larger than previous years.
    The ex-factory price range of Mannheim 52% fully water-soluble powdered potassium sulfate will be 3500~4500 yuan

    .

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