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Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile upward trend
.
The Shanghai aluminum 2210 contract closed at 18,820 yuan, up 565 yuan
during the week.
Aluminum prices broke through the upper edge of the previous shock range, and there was a slight retracement, and there is technically a driving force
to continue upward.
In terms of news, Gazprom recently announced that it will suspend the supply of Nord Stream 1 natural gas from August 31 to September 2, resulting in a further increase in the already high European energy price, and the German electricity price broke through the 700 euro mark for the first time
.
Against the backdrop of high energy prices, news of production cuts in overseas markets during the week, Speira, a large European aluminum rolling company, said it was considering cutting output from its German aluminum smelter to 50% of its total capacity, which currently produces about 140,000 tons
.
In addition to the production cuts due to the energy crisis, there were news of strikes and production cuts at a number of smelters during the week
.
On August 22, Hydro's Sunndal aluminum plant in Norway began a strike, shutting down about 80,000 tons of capacity, accounting for 20%
of the total capacity.
Norway's Mosjoen aluminium smelting has also started a strike, during which deliveries of products
were suspended.
According to statistics, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Europe and North America has been reduced by 1.
465 million tons
.
Domestically, at present, the Sichuan Province electrolytic aluminum plant has almost completely stopped production, and the production capacity reduced by power rationing is about 1 million tons, accounting for about 2.
5%
of the national operating capacity.
The Central Meteorological Bureau predicts that Sichuan and Chongqing will usher in a rainy period from August 27 to 30, but even if hydropower increases, it will be difficult to recover
electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the short term.
In terms of inventory, the spread between Shanghai aluminum futures contracts contracted significantly during the week, and the current A00 aluminum ingot in East China is 20 yuan premium to the current month's contract, and the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak
.
LME aluminum stocks totaled 280,000 tons, an increase of 05,000 tons from last Thursday, and LME aluminum stocks are still in a downward trend and at a low level
.
Overall, power cuts and production cuts are the main reason for the recent rebound in aluminum prices, and the current electrolytic aluminum operating capacity in Sichuan is almost completely stopped
.
According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Bureau, from August 27 to 30, Sichuan will usher in moderate to heavy rain, even if the subsequent hydropower increases, it is difficult to recover electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the short term, and due to the characteristics of upstream and downstream industries, after the end of power cuts, there may be a phased shortage of electrolytic aluminum supply and demand in Sichuan and surrounding areas
.
In the later stage, the aluminum price rebound or still not over, it is expected that the rebound pressure is around 20,000 yuan, if it exceeds 20,000 yuan, the Guangxi electrolytic aluminum production capacity that was delayed in the early stage will appear production momentum
.