Prediction of the world's best selling drugs in 2025
Last Update: 2020-06-19
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We are the best in the worldAs soon as we enter the Jianghu, we will be urged< br / > when Wang Tu talks and laughs, he will be drunk< br / > the top 10 list of drug sales is like the Huashan sword in the martial arts, the Nobel Prize in scientific research and the Oscar red carpet in the film and television circleIt is full of swords and swords, and only the capable can live in the fierce competition< br / > this paper is based on the report "prediction of the world's best selling drugs 2025" released by global data, a world-renowned data analysis company, to introduce the global and Chinese competition pattern of each drug target and leading indication< br / > Table 1Top 10 drug prediction in the world in 2025 < br / > collation of drug delivery database and GlobalData official website < br / > 01 < br / > keytruda, opdivo (04) < br / > PD-1 inhibitors with great breakthrough in clinical efficacy: once it works, patients can survive for a long time, and it is expected to achieve cancer cureSince its inception, the progress of clinical indications of PD-1 inhibitors has attracted much attention, and the fierce market competition is the topic that everyone talks about< br / > on October 29, 2019, the third quarter performance report released by MSD showed that the sales volume of K drug in the first three quarters of 2019 was US $7.973 billion, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed US $11 billion, so the market is booming< br / > compared with O drug, the sales volume of O drug in the first three quarters of 2019 was US $5441 million, and the US market showed negative growthIn the past, when the bandits did their best, what did they ask for? Once leading the coquettish o medicine to see the growth of K medicine, I guess it is also sad< br / > according to the data published before the official website of MSD, 60-65% of the global sales of K drugs come from lung cancerNSCLC, as the indisputable place in the field of tumor, determines the success or failure of the rise or fall of PD - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody< br / > drug K has formed a strong and uncontrollable advantage in NSCLC single drug first-line or combined chemotherapy first-line: < br / > √ single drug for first-line NSCLC, (TPS ≥ 50%) (keynote-024) < br / > √ single drug for first-line NSCLC, (TPS ≥ 1%) (keynote-042) < br / > √ combination of pemetrexed and kappa for NSCLC non squamous cancer, Regardless of the expression of PD-L1 (keynote-189) < br / >The only thing to be thankful for is that at the ESMO meeting in 2019, the phase III clinical success of drug O + epimumumab was significant, both positive and negative for PD-L1BMS has finally found a suitable clinical scheme by running around biomarkers PD-L1 and TMB After several years of trials and tribulations, the NSCLC market has long been different: Roche's t medicine and AstraZeneca's I medicine have been covetously approved as first-line NSCLC squamous cancer and non-surgical stage III NSCLC adjuvant treatment < br / > according to the approved indications, as of November 2019, drug K has been approved for 15 tumor species and 21 indications, and drug o has become the most widely used PD-1 inhibitor in clinic Since taking the third line of SCLC in August 2018, drug o has been basically numerous particles, and has failed in many indications: the second line of SCLC, the first line of liver cancer < br / > Table 2 Indications of drug K approved < br / > self medication database < br / > PD - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody market in China, tirelizumab of Baiji Shenzhou will become the sixth monoclonal antibody of PD - (L) 1 in China and the tenth in the world, Hodgkin's lymphoma has ended the approval stage, and urothelial carcinoma is in the NDA stage < br / > according to the market insider information, the domestic PD - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody is expected to be about 7-8 billion yuan, about 2 billion yuan for Hengrui and MSD, and about 1 billion yuan for the other three With the approval of first-line NSCLC indications, drug K is rapidly on the market On the contrary, under the impact of domestic PD-1 mAb, drug o seems to be weak in the future < br / > recently, the negotiation on the list of medical insurance of domestic monoclonal antibody PD-1 is also in full swing There are different opinions in the anecdotal news The domestic drug o is basically on the nail, mainly whether the drug K is willing to reduce the price greatly has been disputed < br / > approval of clinical indications, competition for medical insurance catalogue, game of capital All of them make the domestic PD-1 inhibitor Market fight unresolved and full of expectations < br / > Table 3 The situation of PD - (L) 1 mAbs approved for marketing in China < br / > collating the self medication database < br / > 02 < br / > apixaban < br / > once upon a time, the cardiovascular market was born with legendary drugs such as atorvastatin and clopidogrel, leading the market Now, with the expiration of the patent, it is lonely As the No 1 cardiovascular industry, apixaban is expected to achieve $18.7 billion in sales in 2025 by virtue of its excellent performance in the coagulation market, which will create another glory in the past < br / > in the global market of oral anticoagulants, since 2014, the market share of clopidogrel has continued to decline, and the coagulation factor Xa inhibitors represented by Saban gradually occupy the leading position, represented by apixaban and rivaroxaban Although the market of apixaban was late, it quickly gained the favor of doctors in clinic due to its better safety performance In 2017, apixaban surpassed rivaroxaban and became the best-selling anticoagulant in the world Since then, it has maintained a growth rate of 33% and kept a distance from the later < br / > due to the lack of channel advantages and late listing in the domestic market, apixaban has not achieved outstanding performance However, with such a huge variety, many domestic players have been ready to move Hausen pharmaceutical, Zhengda Tianqing pharmaceutical, dongyangguang pharmaceutical and Kelun Pharmaceutical It involves imitation According to the development of clopidogrel, with the expiration of the patent of apixaban in 2022, it is estimated that the domestic belt purchase is doomed The above manufacturers start a new round of price fight < br / > Table 4 Listing of apixaban in China < br / > 03 < br / > lenalidomide < br / > in 2019, BMS acquired Xinji company and took lenalidomide, a heavy product of multiple myeloma (mm) Mm is the second largest hematological malignancy after NHL, accounting for 13% of hematological malignancies At the same time, mm is also an incurable disease The main goal of clinical treatment is to prolong the survival period of patients as much as possible, and the overall market capacity is huge Since 2018, naduramine has sold 9.685 billion US dollars, which is the best-selling cancer drug in the world < br / > however, with the approval of the first-line use of Johnson & Johnson's daremoumab, lenalidomide is also facing great challenges, with the growth rate slowing down, and the sales volume is expected to be 12.4 billion in 2025 < br / > in the domestic market, Baiji Shenzhou is responsible for the sales of lenalidomide Due to the relatively high price, the market is not full With the generic drugs of Shuanglu pharmaceutical, Zhengda Tianqing and Qilu pharmaceutical coming into the market, the price of lenalidomide also began to fall off a cliff, from the initial 20000 or so to the current 34000 Not surprisingly, two cornerstone drugs for multiple myeloma: lenalidomide and bortezomib, have been purchased in volume < br / > 05 < br / > ibudinib < br / > Btk inhibitor ibudinib was approved by FDA on November 13, 2013, and was used for the treatment of multiple lymphoma Its trade name is imbruvica ® It is estimated that sales of ibutini will reach US $11.9 billion in 2025 < br / > because Btk small molecule inhibitors have very good specificity, they have shown very good advantages in the treatment of B-cell malignant tumors and some B-cell immune diseases Therefore, Btk inhibitors have become the most promising drugs in hematoma market In the next four short years, the annual sales of irutini have been climbing one after another, and it has become one of the first-line super heavyweight bombs, reaching US $6.205 billion in 2018 < br / > and the most exciting thing in this month's circle is that the second generation Btk inhibitor of Baiji Shenzhou has crossed the Pacific Ocean and reached the top of the United States, becoming the first local drug approved by the FDA In addition to being significantly better than ibuprofen in the treatment of mantle cell lymphoma, it also carries the label of "made in China" and defines the lowest price, which makes Chinese proud < br / > Figure 2 From the pharmaceutical circle < br / > in China, ebtinib of Johnson & Johnson successfully settled in the tumor medical insurance catalog by reducing 80% in the negotiation process of medical insurance catalog in 2018 With the coming of Baiji's zebtinib on the market, Btk market is on the rise with good reputation < br / > 06 < br / > adalimumab < br / > in 2018, the company's adalimumab achieved US $19.9 billion, and was approved with 17 indications in the world It won the laurel with its rolling performance It's true that in martial arts novels, it means to be alone and to be defeated: Alas, I want to be a rival in my life, but I can't get it I'm really lonely and embarrassed Medicine, magic and happiness are invincible in the world, but they set up a flag < br / > however, after 2019, due to the expiration of patent protection and the impact of the U.S and European markets, Sumeria music's global dominance is no longer the same year, and sales began to decline According to the first quarter of 2019 performance report released by Aberdeen, Sumeria's global sales fell 5.6% to $4446 million Global expects sales of adamumumab to reach US $10.3 billion in 2025 < br / > different from the booming foreign market, the performance of TNF - α inhibitors led by adamumumab is unsatisfactory in the domestic market The leading leader, Sansheng Guojian, accounts for half of the total TNF - α inhibitors The sales volume is 1 billion yuan, and adamumumab only contributes 200 million yuan, which is not in line with the title of global drug king < br / > in the final analysis, the contrast in the domestic market is the high price of TNF - α biological agents With the listing of the first adalimumab in China, many pharmaceutical companies swarmed in, and eberway was reluctant to comply with the "public opinion" Will the self-help market, which has been "infuriated" by all of us, usher in a big explosion in the future, and will biological analogues enter the next collection list? The industry is full of imagination < br / > 07 < br / > biktarvy < br / > with Gilead's continued decline in the hepatitis C market, the focus of the antiviral market once again returned to HIV < br / > the competition for the HIV market is mainly focused on the trump card battle between tenofovir, the new nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor TAF of Gilead company, and dotiravir, the most important integrase inhibitor of GSK company < br / > in the face of the market downturn of truvada, Gilead timely played a good card of TAF, which has better virus inhibition effect and safety compared with the previously listed tenofovir fumarate < br / > biktarvy is highly expected by Gilead On the basis of TAF based compound drugs, integrase inhibitors are also introduced The curative effect of biktarvy is better than that of the former compound drugs In less than a year of listing, it has achieved $1.184 billion, with the temperament of a super heavy bomb Biktarvy sales are expected to be $10 billion in 2025 5.2018 years HIV drug TOP10 self medication database 08 perphenidi breast cancer is the highest incidence rate in women Estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor (HER2) receptor are often overexpressed in patients Estrogen and progesterone receptors are collectively referred to as hormone receptor hr According to the gene expression and protein level of tumor tissue, breast cancer can be divided into four groups (+ positive, negative): 6., breast cancer type Luminal A type, HR+/HER2- (HR+/HER2-) breast cancer is the highest incidence rate, accounting for 60% Previously, the median progression free survival of letrozole (which can reduce estrogen level) was only 14.5 months, while the median PFS of CDK4 / 6-piperacillin combined with letrozole was as high as 24.8 months, becoming the most significant breakthrough of breast cancer in recent decades With such remarkable curative effect advantages, piperacillin is rapidly expanding in the market, with sales volume of US $4.118 billion in 2018 and estimated sales volume of US $9 billion in 2025, replacing trastuzumab as milk
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