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Production of crops adapted to climate change has fallen |
As agricultural production adapts to changing climates, U.
S.
corn and soybean varieties have become increasingly heat-resistant and drought-resistant
.
But a new study published by American scientists in "Science Reports" shows that focusing on developing crops under extreme conditions has a negative impact on their performance under normal weather patterns
"Since the 1950s, advances in breeding and field management practices have made corn and soybeans more resistant to extreme heat and drought
.
However, this comes at a price
The co-author of the paper, Madhu Khanna, a professor of environmental economics at the University of Illinois, explained that climate forecasts show that in the next 50 years, extreme weather and normal weather patterns are mixed, so crops must perform well under all conditions
.
"It is not enough to focus on extreme weather conditions
.
We cannot look at the impact of climate change in a piecemeal manner, nor can we develop varieties that adapt to climate change just to deal with certain aspects of climate change
They and Ruiqing Miao of Auburn University studied corn and soybean production in the eastern United States from 1951 to 2017, where crops can be grown without irrigation
.
During this period, due to extensive technical and breeding improvements, crop yields increased significantly
But when the researchers isolated climate-related adaptation effects, they found a significant negative impact on yield
.
During this period, heat and drought resistance increased corn and soybean yields by 33% and 20%, respectively, but this increase was offset by the decline in yield under normal conditions .The decline in production is offset
"This is a trade-off
.
Crops are more resilient to extreme weather, but less resilient to normal conditions
The researchers also predicted the net impact of adaptation to climate change on crop yields by 2050 under a series of warming scenarios
.
In the most extreme cases, adapting to climate change will perform better; but in less extreme cases, varieties that perform well in normal climates will be more productive
Khanna and Yu concluded that crop breeders should focus on developing crop varieties that adapt to different climate patterns
.
Flexibility is important for agricultural producers to fully prepare for the future
"Under certain extreme warming conditions, the output of corn and soybeans will drop significantly in the next 50 years, even though these crops may have adapted to extreme conditions
.
In general, there is'maladaptation' because crops cannot fully adapt to extremes and normals.
All possible combinations of conditions
.
Therefore, the overall impact will be very negative
.
" Khanna said
.
Researchers say that people need to completely change the way they adjust and improve crops so that they can better cope with the various situations that they may encounter in the next few years
.
(Source: Wang Fang, China Science News)
Related paper information: https://doi.
org/10.
1038/s41598-021-91192-5
org/10.
1038/s41598-021-91192-5