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    Home > Chemicals Industry > China Chemical > Propylene oxide, styrene surplus EVA, polyethylene tight balance in 2025

    Propylene oxide, styrene surplus EVA, polyethylene tight balance in 2025

    • Last Update: 2021-11-24
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    In recent years, with the surplus of domestic refining capacity and the upgrading of oil quality, the "three powers" of private refining enterprises have been liberalized, the construction of seven national petrochemical industrial bases, the technological advancement of refining and petrochemical products, the diversification of raw materials, and the entry barriers for foreign-funded enterprises Driven by the relaxation and the relatively large profits of petrochemical products relative to oil products, China's petrochemical industry is developing rapidly, with obvious trends in base, large-scale, and integration.


    From now on, the weekly newsletter will analyze the supply and demand status of key petrochemical products in the domestic ethylene industry chain, propylene industry chain, butadiene industry chain, and aromatics industry chain in 2020 and 2025


    Analysis of the supply and demand status of key products in the ethylene industry chain in 2020 and 2025

    Analysis of the supply and demand status of key products in the ethylene industry chain in 2020 and 2025

    1.


    1.


    According to incomplete statistics, between 2020 and 2025, China will add at least 10 million tons of ethylene production capacity per year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.


    It is estimated that China’s ethylene demand will be 32.


    2.


    2.


    In 2020, China's polyethylene demand is 38.


    3.


    3.


    In 2020, China's EVA demand is 1.


    4.


    4.


    In 2020, China's ethylene oxide demand will be 3.


    5.


    5.
    Ethylene glycol

    In 2020, China's new ethylene glycol production capacity will be 4.
    94 million tons/year, and the total capacity will reach 15.
    7 million tons/year, an increase of 46% over 2019; in 2020, China's ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate will be 69%
    .
    Between 2020 and 2025, China will add 10.
    17 million tons of ethylene glycol production capacity per year, and the average annual growth rate of production capacity from 2020 to 2025 is 10.
    5%
    .

    In 2020, China's ethylene glycol demand will be 21.
    63 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 50%
    .
    It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of ethylene glycol demand in China from 2020 to 2025 is 6%; the capacity/demand and total supply/total demand in 2025 will be 89% and 127% respectively
    .

    6.
    Styrene

    6.
    Styrene

    In 2020, China's new styrene capacity will be 2.
    66 million tons/year, and the total capacity will reach 11.
    97 million tons/year, an increase of 29% over 2019; in 2020, China's styrene capacity utilization rate will be 83%
    .
    From 2020 to 2025, China will add 8.
    99 million tons of styrene production capacity per year, and the average annual growth rate of production capacity from 2020 to 2025 is 11.
    9%
    .

    In 2020, China's styrene demand is 12.
    89 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate is 78%
    .
    It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of China's styrene demand from 2020 to 2025 is 5.
    1%; the capacity/demand and total supply/total demand in 2025 will be 127% and 144.
    1%, respectively
    .

    7.
    Analysis of overcapacity of main products

    7.
    Analysis of overcapacity of main products

    In 2020, among the main downstream products of ethylene in China, the ethylene oxide capacity/demand ratio is 148%, the capacity utilization rate is 67%, the self-sufficiency rate is 100%, and there is overcapacity; other products have varying degrees of supply and demand gaps
    .

    In 2025, the capacity/demand ratios of ethylene oxide and styrene will be 124% and 127%, respectively, facing pressure from overcapacity
    .
    The capacity/demand ratios of polyethylene, EVA, and ethylene glycol are 89%, 68%, and 60%, respectively
    .
    Since China's ethylene mainly uses naphtha as raw material, the cost is relatively disadvantageous compared to the Middle East and the United States with light hydrocarbon cracking production.
    With the import of high-end polyethylene and EVA varieties, the import volume of these three products will still be large in 2025.

    .
    Coupled with foreign sources, the supply and demand of polyethylene and EVA will be tightly balanced, and ethylene glycol will have a structural surplus, that is, the capacity of domestic installations cannot be fully utilized, and a large amount of foreign products will need to be imported
    .

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