Prospects for grain and oil crops in Canada

Introduction: [prospect of grain and oil crops in Canada] in late March, the STC planting intention survey of Statistics Canada showed that the planting area of spring wheat, coarse grain, Dry Pea and broad bean in western Canada would increase, while the planting area of hard wheat, rapeseed, flaxseed, mustard seed and lentil would decrease Corn acreage is expected to increase in eastern Canada, while wheat and soybean acreage are expected to decline Aafc expects the total output of grain and oil crops in Canada to be about 63.4 million tons, 3% higher than that in 2000 / 01, assuming that the unit yield is normal The total export volume is expected to remain relatively unchanged at 28.3 million tons, and the decrease in oil crops is offset by the increase in wheat and coarse grain exports Albert and Saskatchewan are now very dry, and if there is no rain in these areas before planting, a small amount of rapeseed planting area will be converted to wheat The actual planting area may be different from the intention report due to the development of market prospect, price change, spring climate and the announced intention of planting area 2001 / 02: the global wheat price (excluding hard wheat) is expected to be higher than that in 2000 / 01 due to the expected decline in wheat production and the decline in the inventory rotation of major exporting countries Global crude grain prices (excluding malt barley) are expected to increase slightly due to the expected decline in US corn production and ending inventory, as well as the decline in barley supply in the EU It is expected that the global oil crop price will remain close to the current low level due to the over supply of global oil crops and the low price of edible oil Domestic support programs in the US and EU are expected to continue to encourage high production, which will lead to price pressures The main factors include: crop growth in major import and export regions, especially the United States; the impact of high nitrogen prices; China's accession to the WTO; and the exchange rate relationship between the Canadian dollar and the United States dollar 1 Wheat (non hard wheat) in 2001 / 02: wheat planting intention increased by 4%, but the expected yield only increased slightly, because the low yield offset the increase of planting area Exports are expected to increase slightly to 14.2 million tons due to strong global demand Feed consumption is expected to decline as barley supply increases but remains historically high due to strong demand for pig feed Inventory turnover is expected to continue to decline, reaching the lowest level since 1995 / 96 Pro forecasts that the price of 11.5% protein content of cwrs1 is 209 US dollars / ton, an increase of 2 US dollars / ton compared with March, 19 US dollars / ton higher than the same period of 2000 / 01 Ontario's winter wheat production is expected to decline by 28% to 1.0 million tons, with a decline in sown area and an increase in the rate of wasteland caused by snowfall 2 Hard wheat: due to a significant decline in the intention of planting area, the expected output will drop by 19% The increase in inventory rotation will offset a 50% decline in production, so supply will only fall by 2% However, the export volume is expected to increase by 0.2 million tons, and North Africa is expected to be in low production for the third consecutive year due to continued strong global demand The domestic feed consumption is expected to return to the normal level, which is higher than that in 2000 / 01 It is expected that the inventory round in volume will decrease slightly to 2.5 million tons, but it still remains far higher than the 10-year average of 1.7 million tons The forecast price of cwad1 11.5% protein content profit is 206 US dollars / ton, 15 US dollars / ton higher than last month's forecast, but 7 US dollars / ton lower than 2000 / 01 There is a small discount for spring wheat 3 Barley: it is estimated that barley production will increase Due to the increase of planting intention, the waste rate will decrease and the per unit yield of Albert and Saskatchewan will increase Total supply is expected to increase by 8% due to increased production The increase in feed consumption is expected due to an increase in barley supply and a decrease in feed wheat supply Feed barley exports are expected to increase significantly due to increased supply Malt barley exports are expected to increase slightly Inventory turnover is expected to increase The price of off-site feed barley is expected to be basically the same as that of 2000 / 01, and the increase of corn price in the United States is offset by the low price due to the increase of supply The profit price outlook of wheat Canada forecasts that CW feed barley No.1 will cost 147 US dollars / ton, an increase of 5 US dollars / ton over the same period last year The price of malted barley is expected to decline due to an increase in global supply of malted barley 4 Oats: the output is expected to increase due to the increase of planting area intention The supply is expected to increase slightly, as the increase in production far offsets the decline in inventory rotation Exports are expected to increase slightly as US imports are expected to remain strong Expected inventory turnover remains unchanged Prices are expected to increase slightly, in line with us corn prices V corn: it is expected that corn production will increase significantly, due to the farmers' plan to plant the highest record corn, and it is expected that the unit yield in East Canada will return to normal level The decrease of inventory turnover will partially offset the increase of production Imports are expected to decline significantly due to increased domestic supply and improved quality It is expected that feed consumption will increase slightly due to the increase of domestic corn supply and the decrease of feed wheat supply Inventory round in is expected to increase The price is expected to be basically the same as that in 2000 / 01, because the past weak market has been offset by the stronger corn price in the United States 6 Rapeseed: the planting area is intended to decrease by 23%, the lowest level since 1996, due to low price, high production cost and expected dry planting conditions Production is expected to decline by 25% It is expected that the supply will decrease significantly, because the sharp decrease of inventory rotation can only be offset by the increase of import volume As a result, the domestic crushing volume and export volume are expected to decline significantly due to tight supply Inventory rotation is expected to decline by 58% Prices are expected to remain at current low levels, but the sharp decline in Canadian supply has supported prices, offset by the decline in US soybean oil prices, the historic low price of palm oil and the negative effects of the extreme abundance of global soybean and palm oil supplies 7 Flaxseed: planting intention has dropped to the lowest value since 1993-94 due to low price But production is expected to decline as unit production returns to normal Supply is expected to decline by 12%, offset by a decline in inventory rotation Exports are expected to increase due to increased import demand from the EU It is expected that the inventory turnover will decrease by 50%, which slightly supports the growth of average price 8 Soybean: the planting area is intended to decrease slightly, but the output is expected to increase due to the increase of unit yield Supply is expected to remain stable as the increase in production is offset by a decline in imports It is expected that the domestic crushing volume and export volume will remain unchanged Prices are expected to decline slightly due to expectations of record production in the United States and record soybean production in South America in 2001 / 02 China feed industry information network PAE