Prospects for the chemical market in the second half of 2019: Pesticides: weak demand and differentiation

In the first half of the year, the supply and demand of China's pesticides were sluggish, exports were weak, and the market fell back after reaching a high level
.
As of June 30, the price index of Chinese technical materials was 115.
41, a year-on-year decrease of 2.
07% and a month-on-month drop of 1.
15%; the overall price index fell by 6.
06%.
Judging from the prices of more than 70 kinds of pesticides and intermediates monitored, 38 kinds of pesticides and intermediates were up.
There were 5 types that were flat, and 27 types were down
.
According to industry analysts, China's pesticides are gradually entering the off-season in demand, and the original drug market is still falling.
It is expected that the overall stability will be around September
.
From the perspective of major products, the pesticide market may be differentiated
.
Among them, the demand for herbicides and pesticides is still sluggish, and prices continue to fall; while the demand for fungicides increases, the market is mainly stable
.
? Herbicides:? Weak demand continues to pull back? In the first half of the year, the price index of herbicides in China fell by 7.
3%; the price index of herbicide technical materials was 97.
23, a year-on-year decrease of 12.
09%.
? The decline in the price index of herbicides was related to the decline in the price of large-tonnage herbicides.
Direct relationship
.
However, some small and medium-sized varieties have high prices due to tight supply, such as mesotrione, clethodim, and oxadiazone ketone technical drugs.
Due to the low start of raw materials and technical drugs, the prices are all high.
The prices are respectively 260,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), 170,000 yuan, and 325,000 yuan
.
At present, the supply of nicosulfuron, clethodim, thidiazuron, and oxadiazon is tight, and prices are still high
.
However, the demand for other ketone technicals has gradually faded, and prices are expected to pull back
.
? At the same time, the market for amide herbicides has also seen a periodical rise, but as the demand fades, prices have been adjusted
.
At present, the price of acetochlor original medicine has returned to less than 20,000 yuan, and the prices of metolachlor and propisochlor are respectively 24,000 yuan and 24,500 yuan, and there is still room for lower prices in the later period
.
? The operating rate of amino acid herbicide plants remained high, and the inventory increased.
However, the market demand in North America and South America was still weak.
The mainstream transaction price of Chinese glyphosate (95%) raw powder suppliers was 23,000 yuan, and the mainstream FOB price in Shanghai Port was 3450~ 3500 USD
.
As the market enters the off-season for sales, the factory operating rate remains relatively high, sales pressure is greater, and the raw material glycine support is weak.
It is expected that the price of glyphosate will be adjusted downward to around 22,000 yuan in the second half of the year, while the price of terminal preparations will remain stable
.
? In terms of glufosinate-ammonium technical drug, due to the increase in inventory and the release of new production capacity, competition among manufacturers is fierce.
The current price has dropped to 120,000 yuan, a decline of 60% compared to the beginning of the year.
The later market depends on the actual supply capacity of new production capacity.
It is not ruled out that a price war will be launched on the cost line, but the possibility of a sharp drop is unlikely
.
In addition, as a representative species with advanced technology and higher activity, L-Glufosinate-ammonium will continue to expand its market capacity in the future
.
? Pesticides:? Supply and demand prices fell? In the first half of the year, China's pesticide price index dropped by 10.
98%.
Nicotine products remained sluggish, and pyrethroid technical drugs fell simultaneously, dragging down the price of pesticides to a certain extent.
Index
.
Zhongnong Lihua's pesticide technical price index showed that the prices of imidacloprid, cypermethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin products fell the most in June, down 5.
1%, 5%, and 4.
4% respectively.
Driven by lower prices of large-tonnage products , The price index of pesticides fell
.
? China's chlorpyrifos market appears to be weak and the price goes down
.
The mainstream transaction price of chlorpyrifos (97%) original drug was 44,500 to 45,000 yuan, and the mainstream price of 97% chlorpyrifos original drug was US$6050 to US$6,100 in FOB port
.
Taking into account the weakening of downstream pesticide demand and the possibility of substitution, it is not ruled out that the price of chlorpyrifos may still fall in the second half of the year
.
? The stock market of abamectin is stable
.
The upstream manufacturers mainly list orders, the supply is not smooth, and the downstream procurement is not active.
The current price of avermectin powder is 780,000 yuan; the number of foreign trade orders for emamectin salt original medicine has increased, and there are some low-priced sources in circulation channels, with a quotation of 1.
18 million yuan
.
Although manufacturers are cautious in taking orders and the prices are high, as the market changes and spot sources flow into the market, the overall price may go down
.
? "The demand for pesticides in field crops continues to be weak, and the demand for pesticides in some cash crops is relatively strong, which has become a bright spot in the flat market.

.
"Jiangxi Zhonghe Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
Marketing Director Yang Sen said that the prices of some fruits and vegetables were high in the first half of the year, which stimulated farmers' enthusiasm for planting, which may bring certain support to the pesticide-related product market
.
? Fungicides:? Supply is tight and stable.
In the first half of the year, the demand for fungicides in China was acceptable, and the market was generally stable
.
The price index of Zhongnong Lihua fungicide technical materials reported at 131.
33 points, a year-on-year increase of 14.
65%, and was basically the same month-on-month
.
· Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection inspections, pesticides Business start-ups are restricted, intermediates are in short supply, and prices are high
.
Senior researcher Zhang Bo believes that the supply of small and medium tonnage varieties of fungicides is tight, which is likely to cause market fluctuations
.
The current shortage of varieties is at a high level, and the prices of some products are high and the intermediate supply chain is heavy.
It is expected that the supply of fungicides will remain tight in the second half of the year
.
According to the monitoring of Zhongnong Zong, azoxystrobin, difenoconazole, fluconazole, tebuconazole, epoxiconazole, prochloraz, dimethomorph, The
technical plants such as dimethocarb and iprodione generally have low operating rates and tight supply; while stocks of products such as propiconazole and pyraclostrobin are high, and prices are declining.
? Secom China General Manager Geng Pingtian believes The supply-side reforms have caused discontinuity in the supply of technical materials, and the slowdown in global economic growth has made the demand for pesticides hardly optimistic
.
With the continued high pressure on environmental protection and the continuation of safety inspections, the scope of rectification has gradually expanded, and the downstream channel inventory will gradually be digested.
It is expected that pesticides The market is oriented by terminal demand, and demand will continue to be released, and tight varieties are still dominated by high-level consolidation
.