PVC futures prices are weak and difficult to perform well in the short term

As of 8.
18, the main force of PVC closed at 6368 yuan / ton, down 2.
17% from the previous month; Top 20 main long positions: 163718 (-31813), short positions: 163063 (-8243), net long positions: 655 (-13701).

Spot and enterprise dynamics: as of 8.
18 East China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6500 yuan / ton (0); South China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6600 yuan / ton (0); Hubei Yihua's 250,000-ton PVC unit was temporarily stopped from August 16, and it was tentatively planned to start up on August 21, and the factory quotation of Type 5 calcium carbide acceptance was 6,400 yuan / ton; Inner Mongolia Yihua 350,000 tons of PVC plant is currently about 90%, and the latest quotation of 6080 yuan / ton
for the acceptance of type 5 calcium carbide is carried out by the factory.

Upstream production profit: as of 8.
18 Northwest chlor-alkali profit of 758 yuan / ton, no change
from the previous day.
Shandong chlor-alkali profit was 263.
2 yuan / ton, up 368.
75 yuan / ton
from the previous day.

Basis: South China basis +232 as of 8.
18; East China basis +132; basis strengthening
.

Upstream raw materials: as of 8.
18, North China calcium carbide quotation was 4425 yuan / ton, no change from yesterday's price; Shaanxi blue charcoal quotation of 1326 yuan / ton, no change
from the previous day's price.

In the short term, the fundamentals of PVC itself have not changed much, and it is still in a "weak supply and demand" situation
.
At present, it is relatively affected by the macro atmosphere, from the perspective of domestic real estate development and sales data, the property market is in a continuous downturn, but "stabilizing the property market" has become a policy force, and we can continue to pay attention to the policy implementation and market response in the future; Peripheral recession expectations remain, according to the latest Fed minutes: "Rate hikes continue, there is no evidence of weakening inflationary pressures"
.
Domestic PVC is in a state
of "high inventory and low demand".
Although the raw material end has some support for the price, combined with the macro situation, it may be difficult for short-term prices to perform well, and maintain the "wait and see" situation
.