PVC futures prices fell back and the downside space is relatively limited

Futures market: as of 9.
14, the main PVC closed at 6343 yuan / ton, down 3.
03% from the previous month; Top 20 main long positions: 301084 (+18651), short positions: 367242 (+48125), net short positions: 66158 (+22828).

Spot and enterprise dynamics: as of 9.
14, East China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6500 yuan / ton (+170); South China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6635 yuan / ton (-140); Ningxia Yinglite's 120,000-ton PVC5 plant began maintenance on September 13, planned for 6 days, the type 3 unit started normally, and the quotation was stable
within the day.
The factory quotation of type 5 calcium carbide acceptance is 6350 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of type 3 calcium carbide acceptance is 6550 yuan / ton; Taizhou Liancheng 600,000 tons of PVC plant started 6-7 percent, the quotation within the day is stable, the current remittance price: us65, us60 at 7000 yuan / ton, us70 in 7100 yuan / ton, the actual order negotiation is the mainstay
.

Basis: As of 9.
14, South China basis +292; East China basis +157; basis slightly strengthened
.

Upstream raw materials: as of 9.
14, North China calcium carbide quotation was 4075 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton from yesterday's price; Shaanxi Lanchar quoted 1436 yuan / ton, down 16 yuan / ton
from yesterday's price.

The US CPI data exceeded market expectations, expectations of a 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve continued to rise, and the dollar index rose
sharply.
Commodities are under pressure
as a result.
Combined with the fundamentals of PVC itself, it is still in the
situation of "high inventory, low demand".
And superimposed on the current PVC profit repair, the supply pressure is gradually reflected
.
Although some real estate policies have been implemented, there is no significant change
in demand stimulation.
Short-term supply and demand are weak, coupled with the external environment and high inventory upside is limited, and aggressive investors can test the short
price before the demand and inventory inflection point appears.
However, combined with the current valuation situation, the downside is expected to be relatively limited
.