PVC futures prices have risen too sharply and there is a short-term adjustment

On the macro front, wide credit and stable growth are the main tone
of the domestic economy this year.
According to data released by the central bank, new RMB loans in January were 3.
98 trillion yuan, a new monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.
4 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing scale was 6.
17 trillion yuan, a record high; and the balance of broad money M2 increased by 9.
8%
year-on-year.
The recovery of domestic infrastructure and property market is still expected
.

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation in East China rose sharply from before the holiday, reaching 9130 yuan / ton; The basis was expanded to -209 yuan/ton
.
Warehouse orders, futures registered warehouse receipts were 14,233 lots (71,200 tons), unchanged
from before the holiday.

In terms of inventory, as of February 7, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 251,000 tons, +30.
6% higher than before the holiday; +106%
YoY.
According to the law, the first quarter has entered the accumulation stage, until March, that is, the spring stocking and replenishment
.

In terms of upstream and downstream, the upstream operating rate is relatively stable, the output is stable and rising, and it is greater than the growth rate of downstream demand, and the market supply is relatively excessive
.
As of Thursday, the ex-factory price of trade calcium carbide in Wuhai area was 4050-4100 yuan / ton, which did not change much
.
In terms of demand, most downstream product enterprises are in a state of resumption of work, but it still takes time
to start and improve.

In terms of starts, the overall operating load of the domestic PVC industry decreased slightly this week, and Yang Coal Hengtong stopped during
the week.
As of January 27, the overall operating load of PVC was 78.
6%, -0.
48% month-on-month; Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method is 82.
43%, and the ethylene method is 64.
44%.

According to statistics, the loss caused by shutdown and maintenance this week was 31,100 tons, an increase
from before the holiday.
According to the convention, with the arrival of the spring peak season, the operating rate of PVC enterprises is likely to pick up
.
But it seems that this has not happened
so far.

At present, PVC social inventory remains in an accumulated state; But it will take time
for demand to pick up after the holiday.
This time, the price of PVC futures has risen too sharply, and there will be adjustments in the short term, and the medium and long term will also enter the stage
of repeated topping.
The transition is estimated around March
.