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After the holiday, PVC futures continued to rebound, yesterday night many commodities broke through the shock range of the mainstream forecast of the previous market, V also broke through the 8800 mark, mainly because yesterday's export data is still significantly higher than market expectations, aggravating the market's June destocking expectations, and at the same time the market has the expectation of export line shifting, the second is that the United States may be unable to take turns in the summer due to power shortages, so a new round of energy shocks lead to supply contraction expectations again
。
Domestic reality, the overall spot in the week is still relatively general, the trading volume is low, the basis is weak, some downstream feedback is still relatively weak, last week's May table data is about 1.
8 million tons (exports based on assumptions) around, year-on-year positive, data performance is still very good,
From the perspective of supply and demand, although exports are weak, but there are still a lot of pending volumes, upstream maintenance in June is still high, if the demand side can be based on a slight month-on-month strengthening in May, in fact, June may be able to see a relatively strong destocking performance, while this week's coal prices are still strong overall, some pits slightly adjusted, blue charcoal prices also returned to more than 1800 yuan, the current riveting price of the upper boundary of V is a dynamic expectation of the export line, it is indeed difficult to assess, and the US energy problem remains to be seen.
The short-term chemical product increase has been large, the risk of chasing is high, it is recommended to wait and see
for the time being.
