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Since November, PVC futures have been strong, and industry insiders expect the possibility
of rushing back down.
On the 21st, the cargo night closed at 6580, closing flat
.
PVC spot was affected by the rise in futures and opened an upward channel
.
In the off-season of consumption, PVC continued to rise, all the way red, mainly due to the shortage of supplies, coupled with the continuous decline of social inventory
.
Since October, the seasonal maintenance efforts in some areas exceeded expectations, the time was long and concentrated, and the inventory of each plant began to decrease, while some manufacturers actively took the opportunity to ship due to the pessimistic mentality in the early stage, and it is not surprising that the bottom rebound under the condition of cost inversion is not surprising
.
At present, enterprises are gradually coming out of the maintenance state, and the operating rate in the industry has improved, but the overall market is still in a tight supply state, and there are many
situations where supply exceeds demand.
Major manufacturers and manufacturers ship orders, pre-sales are better, traders adjust the price according to themselves, follow the market, downstream receiving capacity is limited, cautious wait-and-see mentality to rise
.
As of November 21, the mainstream quotation range of domestic PVC is 6640-6900 yuan / ton
.
At present, the mainstream of PVC5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 6730-6830 yuan / ton, the range of PVC5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 6740-6830 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is around
7000 yuan / ton.
Prices have increased
to varying degrees everywhere.
News: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's real estate development investment from January to October increased by 10.
3% year-on-year, compared with 10.
5%
in the previous month.
From January to October, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 0.
1% year-on-year, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive for the first time this year, and fell by 0.
1%
from January to September.
The real estate industry is sluggish, and there is no favorable support
for PVC building materials products.
Taiwan lowered its December shipping schedule, and this year, China canceled the long-term anti-dumping policies against the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and the gradual reduction of PVC maintenance enterprises in the later period, which will be factors
inhibiting the sharp rise in PVC.
On November 20, the U.
S.
WTI crude oil futures market rose to $57.
11 / barrel, up $1.
90, or 3.
4%, from the previous trading day, and Brent crude oil futures rose to $62.
4 / barrel, up $1.
49, or 2.
4%,
from the previous session.
On the news, U.
S.
gasoline demand and distillate demand declined, the year-on-year growth rate of total refined oil inventories narrowed, and European and American crude oil futures closed higher
.
However, the previous oil price decline was relatively high, which did not support ethylene, and the ethylene external market declined
.
In terms of calcium carbide, calcium carbide in the northwest region started normally, the price fell slightly, compared with last year, the price fell greatly, and the cost support was not enough
.
Downstream product enterprises are generally acceptable, most of them maintain just need to replenish inventory, and the ability to receive high-priced PVC is limited, and the wait-and-see mentality is rising
.
Now that the north has entered the heating season, there are still individual enterprises in a state of maintenance, the supply side has weakened, and the willingness of merchants to raise prices is strong, and PVC prices may remain high in the short term
.
With the completion of the overhaul of the equipment in the future market and the release of new production capacity, the price of PVC cannot be ruled out
.
