PVC main contract narrow finishing market demand is insufficient

Market situation: On January 22, the PVC main V2005 contract was sorted out in a narrow range, closing at 6475 yuan / ton, +0 yuan from the previous trading day; Volume 108687 lots, +10200 lots; Position 183939 lots, -9599 lots, basis 275 yuan, -0 yuan; 5-9 spread: 45 yuan, +10 yuan
.

News: In December 2019, China produced a total of 1,715,360 tons of PVC, an increase of 94,000 tons, an increase of 5.
79%, and a year-on-year increase of 55,400 tons, an increase of 3.
33%.

From January to December 2019, China's total production of PVC was 19.
3459 million tons, an increase of 216,200 tons, an increase of 1.
13%.

In February 2020, PVC had a new unit (300,000 tons) scheduled for overhaul, and one unit (80,000 tons) began to resume production
in early February.
If there is no change in the enterprises that have stopped production for a long time and reduced production in the early stage, the supply of PVC in February will be reduced
compared with January.

Spot market: the price of PVC market in Hangzhou is stable, and the calcium carbide method 5 type 6620-6800 yuan / ton self-pickup
.
Sanlian 6620 yuan / ton, Yihua 6650 yuan / ton, Jintai 6750 yuan / ton, Zhongtai 6700 yuan / ton, Beiyuan 6850 yuan / ton, Beiyuan 8 type 6930 yuan / ton, Tianye 6800 yuan / ton, Tianye type 8 6920 yuan / ton, Tianye type 3 6970 yuan / ton, real negotiation
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 5560 lots, intraday -0 lots
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 134529 lots, +1906 lots, short positions are 136444 lots, -4772 lots, net positions are -1915 lots, and the net margin is reduced
.

Summary: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises during the week was 76.
55%, down 5.
34% from last week, and 6.
89% lower than the same period last year, indicating that the market supply has decreased
.
PVC social inventory increased by 9.
15% month-on-month and decreased by 0.
64% year-on-year, indicating insufficient
market demand.
Downstream maintenance just need to purchase
.
Far futures source procurement is not active, and the psychology of high price resistance is enhanced
.
The domestic calcium carbide market stopped falling and stabilized, the market supply was in the stage of gradual consumption, and the downstream purchasing manufacturers increased their demand with the end of maintenance and the increase of load
.
These factors support the price of PVC
.
The long holiday is approaching, and it is expected that downstream enterprises have successively closed the holiday during the week, and demand will weaken
again.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being
.