PVC main contract narrow range finishing is more likely to maintain range volatility

News: In September 2019, the output of domestic PVC production enterprises was 1.
6173 million tons, an increase of 1.
66% from August and a decrease of 0.
02% from last year; Among them, the output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 1.
3928 million tons, ethylene method was 224,500 tons, calcium carbide production increased month-on-month and year-on-year, and ethylene production decreased month-on-month and
year-on-year.
From January to September, PVC production accumulated 14.
2718 million tons, an increase of 0.
98%
over the same period last year.

The operating rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 79.
32%, an increase of 0.
11% from last week and a decrease of 0.
31% from last year; Among them, the start of calcium carbide method increased by 0.
06% month-on-month and 2.
86% year-on-year; The ethylene method increased by 0.
30% month-on-month and decreased by 15.
38%
year-on-year.

Spot market: The PVC market in Hebei is mainly
stable.
Futures rebounded, but on Saturday, some merchants' quotations had risen slightly, and the downstream small orders were received, and the market was running generally
.
Field reference quotation: 5 types of material without tax 6100-6200 yuan / ton delivery, including tax 6530-6630 yuan / ton delivery, there are also some slightly higher prices, but not much
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 6230 lots, intraday -200 lots, in the historical high area
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 119981 lots, -3697 lots, short positions are 110627 lots, -2521 lots, and the net position is 9354 lots, net long is reduced
.

Summary: The easing of the Sino-US trade dispute has led to a return
to market confidence.
The rebound in international crude oil prices has also boosted market confidence
.
The explosion of Iranian oil tankers has boosted confidence
in the crude oil market.
In the second half of the National Day, the environmental protection production restriction policy was lifted one after another, the pressure of calcium carbide transportation was eased, the production enterprises started steadily rising, the output increased, the PVC spot market supply was sufficient, over time, the planned maintenance of the device is also less and less, in the later stage, only Xinfa and Shenma have maintenance plans, and in the later stage, there are three sets of Dezhou, Zhongtai and Jinniu devices planned to be put into production, and it is expected that the market will continue the pattern
of oversupply.
In addition, after the expiration of anti-dumping, whether China's anti-dumping of the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will continue is also a worrying factor
for the market.
It is expected that the space for PVC rebound in the short term is limited
.
The possibility of maintaining range volatility in the future market is greater, and operationally, it is recommended that investors trade in the range of 6420-6500
.