PVC main force strong finishing in the short term of the increase is large

News: PVC social inventory continued to decrease by 23.
23% month-on-month last week, 40.
16% year-on-year, 21.
18% month-on-month and 30.
93% year-on-year decrease in East China, and 35.
71% month-on-month decrease and 70%
year-on-year decrease in South China.
East China stocks are 67,000 tons, South China 09,000 tons
.

Last week, the operating rate of domestic PVC production enterprises increased by 0.
4% from last week to 78.
42%, 3.
4% lower than the same period last year; Among them, the calcium carbide method increased by 1.
33% month-on-month at 81%, an increase of 0.
15% year-on-year, and the ethylene method decreased by 1.
44% month-on-month to 75% and 18.
45%
year-on-year.

Last week, the cost of calcium carbide method of domestic calcium carbide PVC enterprises decreased by 42 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the profit increased by 252 yuan / ton, mainly driven by the rise in the price of calcium carbide
.
At present, the profit of East China calcium carbide PVC is about 1430 yuan, which is in a relatively high area
.

Spot market: PVC5 type supply in Qilu Chemical City market continues to be tight, calcium carbide 5 type quotation is 7030 yuan / ton (Xinfa excluding tax 6570 yuan / ton), ethylene Qilu price S700 quotation including tax 7150 yuan / ton, S1000 quotation 7050 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts report 0 lots, intraday -0 lots
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 145178 lots, -165 lots, short positions are 141834 lots, +2496 lots, and the net position is 3344 lots, net long decrease
.

Summary: On the supply side: the autumn centralized maintenance of upstream production enterprises has basically ended, and the supply will show a gradual increase pattern in the later period; On the demand side: real estate data
surprises.
Total investment in real estate development and sales figures for new housing starts increased
significantly from the previous year.
Although the sales area is still lower than the same period last year, it also has a more significant increase
from the previous quarter.
Raw materials: the domestic calcium carbide market price has been adjusted down regionally
.
In addition, Taiwan's downward revision of December sailing schedule quotations has put some pressure
on market psychology.
However, China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in phases, and although the operating rate of PVC production equipment increased last week, the social inventory of PVC decreased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating that downstream demand has recovered and the speed of destocking has accelerated
.
The decrease in imports of PVC downstream products and the increase in exports also supported prices
.
Considering the large increase in PVC in the short term, there may be a need
for technical adjustments in the future market.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors can reduce their holdings when they rush high, and drop their pockets for safety
.