PVC main narrow finishing downstream demand is sluggish or suppresses prices

News: Through the survey of the top 50 domestic real estate enterprises, we learned that from February 10, real estate enterprises have resumed work
one after another.
The earliest batch to resume work was February 10, accounting for 28%, but the majority worked from home; Most real estate companies concentrated on February 17 to resume work; Some real estate enterprises will not be able to resume work until February 20 due to local government policy restrictions; The resumption of work of individual real estate enterprises has not yet been determined, and will be arranged to resume work
according to changes in the epidemic.

PVC social inventory this week increased by 29.
63% month-on-month, down 6.
91% year-on-year, in East China, it increased by 27.
27% month-on-month and 14.
29% year-on-year, and South China increased by 40% month-on-month and decreased by 46.
56%
year-on-year.
East China stocks are 280,000 tons, South China 70,000 tons
.

The operating rate of production enterprises this week was 67.
20%, down 3.
50% from last week and 18.
32% lower than the same period last year; Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide enterprises was 69.
37%, down 1.
13% from last week, 17.
86% lower than the same period last year, and the operating rate of ethylene process enterprises was 57.
08%, down 14.
57% from last week, and 20.
47%
lower than the same period last year.

Spot market: Qilu Chemical City PVC market weak operation, the current quotation is less, the price is 10-20 yuan / ton lower than last week, calcium carbide 5 type price is 6560 yuan / ton, ethylene Qilu S1000 price is 6670 yuan / ton, S700 price is 6770 yuan / ton, inquiries are rare, the market is relatively light
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 4755 lots, intraday -0 lots
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 143403 lots, +90 lots, short positions are 134396 lots, -1016 lots, and the net position is 9007 lots, which is a net long increase
.

Summary: After the holiday, the operating rate of PVC manufacturers fell back to 67.
20%, down 3.
50% from last week and 18.
32% lower than the same period last year; It shows that the production enterprises have reduced their negative production significantly
.
However, due to the impact of transportation restrictions and sluggish downstream demand, PVC social inventory increased by 29.
63% month-on-month and decreased by 6.
91%
year-on-year.
In terms of demand, after the Lantern Festival, the resumption rate of downstream enterprises is still not high, and most real estate enterprises are concentrated on February 17; Some real estate enterprises will not be able to resume work until February 20 due to local government policy restrictions; The resumption time of individual real estate enterprises has not yet been determined, and the resumption time is arranged
according to the changes of the epidemic.
Therefore, the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock goods is weak
.
At present, it is in the off-season of PVC demand, downstream demand is insufficient, coupled with the need to delay the start of downstream construction, it is expected that the sluggish downstream demand will inhibit the price of
PVC.
Investors are advised to wait and see for the time being
.