PVC main shock higher market still has rebound requirements

News: In October 2019, China imported a total of 45,377 tons of PVC, an increase of 0.
7652 million tons, an increase of 20.
28%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16,623 tons, a decrease of 26.
81%.

From January to October 2019, China imported a total of 546,900 tons of PVC, down 80,400 tons or 12.
82%
from the same period last year.
In October 2019, exports of PVC were 37,900 tons, down 02,700 tons, or 6.
71%, from the same period last year, and up 19,100 tons, or 45.
81%,
from the same period last year.
From January to October, a total of 452,300 tons of PVC were exported, a decrease of 85,200 tons, or 15.
85%,
over the same period last year.

Westlake Chemical plans to start production of three polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plants
in Louisiana and Germany by the end of the year.
After the expansion, 340,000 tons/year of PVC and 90,000 tons/year of vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) capacity
will be added.
Among them, the Qisma PVC expansion project will be put into operation in December, and the process of gradually increasing production may continue until early
January next year.
The production capacity of Westlake Chemical's Qasma plant will be increased to 770,000 tons/year of PVC, 680,000 tons/year of VCM and 440,000 tons/year of caustic soda
.
In addition, Shin-Etsu Chemical U.
S.
is expanding the PVC plant in Prakmin, Louisiana, and plans to start production
by the end of 2020.
The expansion will increase PVC production by 58% to more than
1 million tons per year.
The company is also building a new 1 million mt/year VCM unit and increasing dichloroethane (EDC) production by 680,000 mt/year, chlorine production by 640,000 mt/year, and caustic soda production by 730,000 mt/year
.

Spot market: Guangzhou PVC market 5 mainstream price 7150-7250 yuan / ton, spot scarce, futures quotation is stable
.
Laozhong Tai 7200 (early next week), Tianye 7230, Salt Lake 7200, Yushe 7200, Yili 7250, Junzheng 7250, Jinchuan 8 7120, Beiyuan 8 7050; Ethylene Dagu 1000 size 7250, 800 large/800 small 7150-7200, 1300 type 7330, Dagu 700 type 7200, Haijing 800 type 7150
.
The spot of Type 5 in Shantou continued to rise by 30 yuan / ton, and Junzheng, Tianhu and sea level were 7330 yuan / ton, and the real negotiation
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 3 lots, intraday -0 lots, in the historical low area
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 1386821 lots, -1719 lots, short positions are 138898 lots, +2136 lots, net positions are -216 lots, net long turn net short
.

On the supply side: the autumn centralized maintenance of upstream production enterprises has basically ended, and the output of increased production by the end of this year may reach 710,000 tons, and the supply will show a gradual upward pattern; Demand: Downstream terminal enterprises entered the off-season of previous years, and with the drop in temperature, downstream construction was restricted and demand was flat
.

Raw materials: the domestic calcium carbide market price has been adjusted down regionally
.
The increase in production has suppressed prices, the Asian PVC market is sluggish, and Taiwan's downward revision of December sailing quotations has also put some pressure
on market psychology.
However, China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in phases, and PVC equipment maintenance unexpectedly increased in mid-November, PVC social inventory decreased by 21.
43% month-on-month, down 30.
77% year-on-year, the speed of destocking has accelerated to boost market confidence, in addition, PVC downstream products imports decreased, exports increased also supported prices
.
It is expected that PVC will have certain rebound requirements
in the future.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors can set a take profit in their hands and hold
them cautiously.