PVC main shock lower downstream demand has recovered

News: Affected by the recent tight supply in the Chinese mainland market, the continuous rise in PVC prices, and the increase in import inquiries, Taiwan's Huaxia plastic PVC quotation in December was raised by $10 / ton this week to 880 US dollars / ton CIF India (Nhava Sheva), 860 US dollars / ton CFR China / Southeast Asia, FOB Taiwan region at 830 US dollars / ton, large order discount of 10 US dollars / ton
.

Spot market: Guangzhou PVC market futures price fell by 50 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity of spot price moved slightly down to 7250-7350 yuan / ton
.
Tianye 7320, Beiyuan 7250, Sanlian 7280, Yili 7350, Junzhengxin 7350, Ordos 7300.
Salt Lake 7280, ethylene Dagu 1000 size 7380, 800 big 7200, 1300 type 7350, Dagu 700 type report 7280, Haijing 1000 type 7370
.
The 5-type spot market in Shantou is stable, with Junzheng, Tianhu, Haiping, and Xinfa 7380 yuan / ton, real negotiation
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts report 0 lots, intraday -0 lots
.

Main position: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 113421 lots, -19528 lots, short positions are 115073 lots, -18285 lots, net positions are -1652 lots, net short increases
.

On the supply side: the autumn centralized maintenance of upstream production enterprises has basically ended, and the supply will show a gradual increase pattern in the later period; On the demand side: real estate data
surprises.
Total investment in real estate development and sales figures for new housing starts increased
significantly from the previous year.
Although the sales area is still lower than the same period last year, it also has a more significant increase
from the previous quarter.

Raw materials: the domestic calcium carbide market price has been adjusted down regionally
.
In addition, Taiwan's downward revision of December sailing schedule quotations has put some pressure
on market psychology.
However, China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in phases, and although the operating rate of PVC production equipment increased last week, the social inventory of PVC decreased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating that downstream demand has recovered and the speed of destocking has accelerated
.
The decrease in imports of PVC downstream products and the increase in exports also supported prices
.
Considering the large increase in PVC in the short term, there may be a need
for technical adjustments in the future market.